Here's the economic calendar for the week commencing the 21st of June 2010. This week there's Q1 GDP from New Zealand, and the third estimate of US Q1 GDP (the US also has the FOMC interest rate non-decision). Then there's inflation numbers from Canada and Japan. Trade figures from Japan, and New Zealand, who also has its current account balance for Q1 due out this week (the eurozone will also announce its current account balance for April). Also on the radar is the G-20 meeting next weekend, and of course the week will be made interesting by the announcement from China this weekend about further reforms to the yuan policy.
(More commentary follows the table)
|MON||4:30||JPY||All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (APR)||2.0%||-0.8%|
|TUE||GBP||U.K. Government Publishes Budget Report|
|TUE||3:00||NZD||Credit Card Spending (YoY) (MAY)||1.9%|
|TUE||6:15||CHF||Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (MAY)||2.02B|
|TUE||8:00||EUR||German IFO - Business Climate (JUN)||101.2||101.5|
|TUE||8:00||EUR||Eurozone Current Account s.a. (euros) (APR)||1.7B|
|TUE||11:00||CAD||Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)||1.8%|
|TUE||11:00||CAD||Bank Canada CPI Core (YoY) (MAY)||1.9%|
|TUE||14:00||USD||Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR)||7.1%||7.6%|
|TUE||14:00||USD||Existing Home Sales (JUN)||6.20M||5.77M|
|TUE||14:00||USD||House Price Index (MoM) (MAY)||0.3%||0.3%|
|TUE||14:00||EUR||Eurozone Consumer Confidence (JUN A)||-19||-18|
|TUE||22:45||NZD||Current Account Balance (NZD) (JUN 20)||-0.250B||-3.574B|
|TUE||22:45||NZD||Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (1Q)||-2.7%||-2.9%|
|WED||7:30||EUR||German PMI Manufacturing (JUN A)||58.0||58.4|
|WED||8:00||EUR||Eurozone PMI Services (JUN A)||55.9||56.2|
|WED||8:00||EUR||Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (JUN A)||55.3||55.8|
|WED||8:00||EUR||Eurozone PMI Composite (JUN A)||55.8||56.4|
|WED||8:30||GBP||Bank of England Meeting Minutes|
|WED||12:30||CAD||Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)||2.1%|
|WED||14:00||USD||New Home Sales (MoM) (MAY)||-14.7%||14.8%|
|WED||14:00||USD||New Home Sales (MAY)||430K||504K|
|WED||18:15||USD||FOMC Interest Rate Decision||0.25%||0.25%|
|WED||22:45||NZD||Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)||0.5%||0.8%|
|WED||22:45||NZD||Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)||1.8%||0.4%|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Adj.Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (MAY)||626.8B||729.1B|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (MAY)||36.5||40.4|
|THU||0:00||AUD||Conference Board Leading Index (APR)||0.3%|
|THU||9:00||EUR||EU Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM) (APR)||1.6%||5.2%|
|THU||12:30||USD||Durable Goods Orders (MAY)||-1.2%||2.9%|
|THU||22:45||NZD||Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (MAY)||767M||656M|
|THU||23:30||JPY||National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)||-1.1%||-1.2%|
|THU||23:30||JPY||National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)||-1.3%||-1.5%|
|THU||23:30||JPY||National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)||-1.6%||-1.6%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q T)||3.0%||3.0%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Personal Consumption (1Q T)||3.5%||3.5%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q T)||1.0%||1.0%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Personal Consumption Expenditure q/q||0.6%||0.6%|
|FRI||13:55||USD||U. of Michigan Confidence (JUN F)||75.5||75.5|
Starting off with GDP, New Zealand will announce Q1 2010 Gross Domestic Product this week, with expectations for 1.8% growth year on year (vs 0.40% in Q4 2009), and 0.5% growth QoQ as it continues its gradual economic recovery. The other main GDP release this week is from the US, with the third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis expected to show an annualised quarterly growth rate of 3.00% (or 0.75% quarter on quarter), see the previous US Q1 GDP estimate.
Moving on to CPI, Canada is set to release its May CPI numbers, with the previous figure showing year on year growth of 1.8%, and the Bank of Canada beginning the rate tightening cycle, it's clear inflation is not dead in Canada. Japan on the other hand is expected to show yet another month of deflation, with the main index expected to show -1.1% year on year. Keeping with inflation and monetary policy, the US Federal Open Market Committee is to announce its interest rate decision this week, which will likely be more of the same - no changes in tone or policy expected. Elsewhere in monetary policy the Bank of England will release its recent meeting minutes this week.
On the international flows front there's trade balances due from Japan (expecting a slight drop, but still a large surplus), and New Zealand (expecting a slight pick up into further surpluses). There's also the current account data from the EU for April, and New Zealand for Q1, with expectations for further improvement in the current account deficit, and the current account deficit to GDP ratio projected to shrink further (however as noted previously, much of the current drivers are cyclical in nature).
As for the rest, the notables are US existing home sales (slight improvement), and new home sales (slight decline), US durable goods orders (slight decline), and a couple which will be particularly interesting in the current backdrop; eurozone Consumer Confidence, and Purchasing Managers Index data for June (with both expected to post slight declines). And of course as noted previously there's the G-20 Summit Meeting in the weekend (in Canada), which will now be able to discuss other things given that the Chinese aptly played their cards with an ambiguous commitment to enhanced flexibility of the Yuan or Renminbi.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates...
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification
Disclosure: No positions