USD/JPY - Rangebound Trading Continues

 |  Includes: FXY, UDN, UUP
by: Dean Popplewell

By Kenny Fisher

USD/JPY continues to show little activity this week. The pair is trading in the low-102 line early in the North American session on Wednesday. In Japan, Corporate Services Price Index met expectations, as Japanese inflation indicators continue to look solid. There are on Japanese releases on Wednesday. Over in the US, manufacturing numbers was a mix, as Durable Goods Orders posted a strong gain, but Core Durable Good Orders came in short of the estimate.

In the US, manufacturing data was a mix on Wednesday. Core Durable Goods Orders posted a weak gain of 0.2%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. Durable Goods Orders looked sharper, jumping 2.2% last month. This broke a mini-streak of two straight declines, and easily surpassed the estimate of 1.1%. On Tuesday, New Home Sales missed the forecast but CB Consumer Confidence climbed to a six-year high.

The US and its European allies have imposed limited sanctions on Russia after its annexation of Crimea, but are holding off on additional measures if Russia does not take further military action. The lack of a tough response from the West reflects divisions within Europe over how strong a stance to take against Moscow. Meanwhile, the Ukraine has signed an association agreement with the EU and is seeking a loan package of up to $20 billion from the IMF. Ukraine's economy has suffered badly after months of political turmoil.

USD/JPY for Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/JPY March 26 at 15:00 GMT

USD/JPY 102.56 H: 102.69 L: 102.24

USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
99.57 100.00 101.19 102.53 103.30 104.17
Click to enlarge
  • USD/JPY remains listless in Wednesday trading, continuing the pattern we have seen all week.
  • 102.53 remains a weak resistance line and could be tested during the day. This is followed by strong resistance at 103.30.
  • 101.19 is providing support. The next support line is the key level of 100.00, which has held firm since last November.
  • Current range: 101.19 to 102.53

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 101.19, 100.00, 99.57 and 98.65
  • Above: 102.53, 103.30, 104.17, 105.70, 106.85

OANDA's Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the trend we have seen throughout the week. This is consistent with the pair's listless movement. Long positions make up a majority of the open positions in the ratio, indicating trader bias towards the dollar breaking out and moving higher.

USD/JPY continues to have an uneventful week as it trades above the 102 line. The lack of movement is likely to continue in the North American session.

USD/JPY Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 1.1%. Actual 2.2%.
  • 13:45 US Flash Services PMI. Estimate 54.2 points. Actual 55.5 points.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.9M. Actual 6.6M.
  • 20:30 US Bank Stress Results.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.