A Look Back At Big Pharma Stocks

Includes: BAYRY, BMY, LLY, PFE
by: Derek Lowe

Four years ago, I wrote about what I called "Big Pharma's Lost Decade" in the stock market. I thought it would be worth revisiting that, with some different time points.

At the top is the performance of those same big drug companies since I wrote that blog post. Note that Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) has been the place to be during that period (lots of excitement around their oncology pipeline, for one thing). Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) has beaten the S&P index over that time as well. And they've done it while paying a higher dividend than the aggregate S&P, too, of course - I'd like to find a way to include dividends into charts like these for an even more real-world comparison. Everyone else is behind.

The next chart shows a ten-year time frame. Bristol-Myers Squibb is still on top, although you'll note that the overall gain is basically the same as the gain since 2010 (that is, it's all come since then). And now Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is right behind them, and they're the only two whose stock prices have beaten the S&P index over this period. Note that Pfizer and Lilly (NYSE:LLY) are actually down from this time point.

Then we have performance since 2000, the 21st-century chart. Since this was during the Crazy Years in the market, just about everyone is down when measured from here, except for J&J (which is at about the same gain as if you'd started in 2004). The most dramatic mover is Bristol Myers-Squibb - if you bought in at the start of that last chart, you're up 109%. If you bought in at the start of this one, you're down 21%.

And that brings us to the last chart, which is basically "since I started working in the drug industry." I'd been on the case for about three months by the end of 1990, which is where this one starts. And there are many interesting things to note - first among them, what a big, big deal the latter half of the 1990s were in the stock market. And more specifically, what a big, big deal they were for Pfizer's stock. Holy mackerel, will you look at that chart - compared to the rest of the industry, Pfizer's stock was an absolute monster, and there you have a big driver for all of the company's merger-rific behavior during that period. It paid. Not so much in research results, of course, but it paid the shareholders, and it paid whoever had lots of PFE stock and options. (And it paid the firms on the Street who did the deals with them, too, but that's always the case for them). A really long-term Pfizer shareholder can't be upset at all with the company's performance versus the S&P over that time period. How many have held it, though?

But the other thing to note is J&J. There they are again - it's only in that first chart that they're lagging. Longer-term, they just keep banging away. That, one would have to assume, is at least partly because they've got all those other medical-related businesses keeping them grounded during the whole time. Back when I worked for Bayer (OTCPK:BAYRY) at the Wonder Drug Factory, analysts were forever banging on about how the company just had to break up. Outdated conglomerate model, holding everyone back. So much hotness waiting to be released. But Bayer hasn't been holding up too badly, either, and Bernard Munos has some things to say about both them and J&J.

It is not a good idea (to "undiversify") because, at the moment, we do not have good tools to mitigate risk in drug R&D, which is a problem at the macroeconomic level, because capital does not flow to this industry as it should. Too many investors have been burned too badly and are now investing elsewhere or sitting on the fence, so we need to somehow get better at that ...we've got to live with the situation where risk in the pharmaceutical industry cannot really be mitigated adequately. You can do portfolio management. Every company has done portfolio management. It has failed miserably across the board. That was supposed to protect everybody against patent cliffs, and everybody has fallen down patent cliffs, so clearly portfolio management has not worked.

Mind you, "undiversifying" is exactly what Pfizer is trying right now. They're not only trying to undo some of the gigantism of all those mergers, they're shedding whatever they have that is not pharma. So they're running that experiment for us, as they have some others over the years.

Disclosure: None.