Yield (dividend / price) results from here verified by Yahoo Finance selected small, mid, & large cap Financial stocks at market closing prices as of March 21 were augmented by analyst 1-yr target projections revealed by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. The result was five actionable conclusions detailed below.
Wall Street Wizard Weights
One-year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment was used to compare ten stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2015 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid mean target price.
Actionable Conclusion (1) Ten Financial March Dividend Dogs Track 4.46% to 23.33% Upsides
Since the fall of 2011, this report series applied dog dividend methodology to uncover possible buy opportunities in each of eight major market sectors listed by Yahoo Finance: basic materials (BasMats), consumer goods (ConGo), financials (Fins), healthcare (Heal), industrial goods (IndiGo), services (Svcs), technology (Tec), and utilities (Utes). In the past year the series expanded to report (1) dividend yield; (2) price upside; (3) net gain results based on analyst 1 yr. target projections.
Dog dividend methodology is based on Michael B. O'Higgins book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), which revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increased (and whose dividend yields therefore decreased) could be sold off once a year to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index. Now named Dogs of the Dow, O'Higgins system also works to find bargains in any collection of dividend paying stocks.
Dog Metrics Gauged Financial Stocks by Yield
Top ten financial sector dogs showing the biggest dividend yields by this screen as of March 21 represented five industries: (1) mortgage investment; (2) residential REIT; diversified REIT; (4) asset management (5) diversified investments. Top financial sector stock, Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp (NYSE:WMC) was one of two Mortgage Investment firms. The other, Ellington Financial LLC (NYSE:EFC), placed ninth. The best of three residential REITs, CYS Investments (NYSE:CYS) was second dog. Others in that industry placed third, and fifth: Armour Residential REIT (NYSE:ARR); New York Mortgage Trust Inc (NASDAQ:NYMT). Three Diversified REITs in fourth, sixth and seventh positions, were Resource Capital (NYSE:RSO), AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (NYSE:MITT), and American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp (NASDAQ:MTGE). A lone asset management firm, Och-Ziff Capital Management (NYSE:OZM) placed eighth and a single diversified investments firm, Prospect Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:PSEC) placed tenth to round out the top ten financial dogs by yield.
Sector Leader Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Index Dogs
Graphs below compare relative strengths of the top ten financial sector dogs by yield as of market close 3/21/2014 with those of the Dow industrials index. Annual dividend history from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks along with the total single share price of those ten stocks made the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividends.
Actionable Conclusion (2): Financial Dogs And Dow Were Bullish For March
Financial sector dividend payers as of March 21 showed sagging dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top ten stocks, while aggregate single share price of those ten increased. Dividend dropped at a rate of 3.6% since January while total single share price popped up 3% for the period.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten Dow dogs dropped 0.2% since February while aggregate single share price rose 0.7%. The Dow dogs overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend widened again. The overhang was $140 or 38% to end November; shrank back to $111 or 29% into December/January; expanded to $132 or 35% in February, and $136 or 36% into March.
To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and so were added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to dig out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Wall Street Wizards Saw A 15.4% Net Gain from Top 20 Financial Dogs Come March 2015
Top twenty dogs in the financial sector were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of March 21, 2014 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2015.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2015.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $20,000 invested as $1k in each of the highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2014. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2015 data points green for price and blue for dividend.
Yahoo projected 2% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase by over 3.4% in the coming year. As above, the number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).
A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock price movement opposite market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (4): Analysts Forecast March 2015 Financial DiviDog Net Gains of 16% to Over 34%
Seven of the ten top dividend yielding financial dogs were verified as being among the ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for the financial sector as graded by Wall St. wizards was 70% accurate.
Ten probable profit generating trades were revealed by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance into 2015:
Och-Ziff Capital netted $342.13 based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from eight analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 108% more than the market as a whole.
American Capital Mortgage netted $233.39 based on a mean target price estimate from eight analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 53% less than the market as a whole.
CYS Investments, Inc. netted $207.27 based on estimates from twelve analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 71% less than the market as a whole.
TICC Capital Corp. (NASDAQ:TICC) netted $195.59 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% less than the market as a whole.
Resource Capital netted $195.52, based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from two analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 22% less than the market as a whole.
Fifth Street Finance (NASDAQ:FSC) netted $185.08, based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from ten analysts less broker fees. No Beta number was available for FSC.
Ellington Financial LLC netted $184.58 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 41% less than the market as a whole.
Prospect Capital Corporation netted $178.72, based on dividends plus mean target price estimates by eleven analysts less broker fees. No Beta number was available for PSEC.
Armour Residential REIT netted $165.45 based on a mean target price estimate from nine analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 66% less than the market as a whole.
BlackRock Kelso Capital (NASDAQ:BKCC) netted $164.38, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% more than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was over 20.5% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 18% less than the market as a whole.
Actionable Conclusion (5): (Bear Alert) Analysts Forecast 1 Financial DiviDog to Post A Net Loss of 6% By 2015
The probable losing trade revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2015 was:
Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE:CIM) was projected to lose $61.14 based on dividend and a mean target price estimate from three analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 16% less than the market as a whole.
The net gain and loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Disclosure: I am long ARR, FSC, CSCO, CVX, GE, INTC, MCD, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.