- Recent evidence shows gold earns a real, not constant long term global return.
- Viewing gold's real return in dollars masks its global return.
- Graphs showing gold has a constant real long run return are flawed because they don't look at gold's global purchasing power.
I often like Barry Ritholtz's thinking. A March 28, 2014 article in Bloomberg on the long term real price of gold however, needs re-framing in a global context. Since Roy Jastram published his deservedly esteemed "The Golden Constant", gold has been viewed as a (constant) store of real value. A wealth of statistics presented by Jastram seemed to show this.
An update of some of his analysis in a LBMA article by Jill Leyland has this graph:
In his article, Barry Ritholtz presents a graph from Catherine Mulbrandon of Visualizing Economics:
This chart includes the market price of gold as well as the U.S. government pegged price.
Sure enough, the real gold price seems to be going nowhere in the long run; a store of value.
In this SA article, I have argued that gold in fact is more than a store of value; it earns a real yield and thus gains in world purchasing power in terms of goods and services per unit. Rather than use my data, I thought I would show some relevant and interesting findings from others.
Now, let's consider the implications of a quintupling share of U.S. world GDP over the period of time when the USD real price of gold remained constant. The two main world economic powers were the United Kingdom and the U.S. The USD purchasing power in terms of pounds sterling remained fairly constant since 1820 before nearly tripling since the early 1900's. The purchasing power of the dollar moved much higher against other world currencies, however.
Further evidence of this comes from a graph in Barsky-Summers' seminal 1988 paper on the Gold Standard Gibson's Paradox "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard". Their chart of the world price index during this time is declining. Since most of the world in terms of GDP was on a fixed gold standard, the price is in terms of gold - meaning, that the purchasing power of gold in real terms, against a basket of world goods and services - rose.
The inescapable conclusion is that a constant real USD gold price actually gained in world real purchasing power. Jastram and other analysts fell into the mindset of viewing gold through pricing in the two strongest currencies of the time - not in terms of world purchasing power which is what matters for an asset traded in a world market. I made precisely this critique of the gold-as-a-store-of-value belief in my eBook showing how gold is actually valued.
Contrary to World Gold Council research, store of value graphs and popular belief based on statistics showing the price of gold in dollars, gold obtains an increasing global real yield and return. In the long run, a unit of gold will earn in real terms exactly what other long term investments return including stocks and long bonds. The logic, match and evidence for this is beyond the scope of this brief article but is more fully discussed in the referenced book and a number of journal publications.
Disclosure: I am long DUST. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.