See Blog From Dead Programmers' Cafe on "The Starbucks Siren."
Oh, my opinion on Starbucks (SBUX) the stock? It's expensive, it stays expensive. And Starbucks keeps turning in phenomenal growth. I have bought it over the years after pullbacks, then bail out as soon as the stock recovers. This is the the classic, "I wished I owned it but am too chicken to pay for a huge multiple" stock. But I keep selling it thinking I can pick up better value elsewhere. At some point Starbucks will become like McDonald's (MCD) - saturated, resented, hated, a symbol of bad health and growing slowly - and growth will be difficult to find. But for now, they have a great product:
1. Their product is legal
2. Their product is addictive
3. They provide one of the only remaining public places for community that remain after big box stores like Wal-Mart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) come in and wipe out downtowns
4. China likes coffee
5. Every time they open a store people crowd in.
So heck, I will try to buy the stock if it ever has a pullback - until that time I can find other values around.
SBUX 1-yr chart:
Disclosure and Confessions: I am short puts on SBUX. The stock has to drop by 50% to make these puts have any value. I have owned and traded SBUX in the past two years.