No, your charts aren't playing tricks on you. Over the last couple of weeks, both gold and the dollar have struggled, and prior to that, both were in up-trends. The dollar and gold are supposed to move in opposite directions, right? Not recently. Below is a chart of the 50-day rolling correlation (using daily % change) between the metal and the currency going back to 1975. As shown, there has just been a big spike in correlation that is very rarely seen. The 50-day correlation, which is currently at 0.33, has only been above the 0.30 level 1.2% of the time since 1975. Other spikes above 0.30 came in May 1982, March 1991, November 1992, January 1994, April 1996, and April 2002. The last spike happened in March 2009, but the high then only reached 0.24.
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