AUD/USD - Higher As Australian Job Data Shines

Includes: FXA, UDN, UUP
by: Dean Popplewell

By Kenny Fisher

AUD/USD has posted further gains, as the pair has pushed above the 0.94 line in Thursday trading. The Aussie has looked sharp, posting gains of over 150 pips against its US counterpart this week. The Aussie received a boost as Employment Change and Unemployment Rate both beat their estimates. As well, Chinese Trade Balance bounced back in March, after a steep decline a month earlier.

Australian data continues to impress, and the Aussie has responded with sharp gains this week. Employment Change posted a second straight gain, coming in at 18.6 thousand. This easily surpassed the estimate of 7.3 thousand. The unemployment rate followed suit, dropping to 5.8%, a three-month low. The markets had expected an estimate of 6.1%. Earlier in the week, Consumer Sentiment and Home Loans looked sharp.

In the US, Unemployment Claims rebounded sharply, as the key indicator dropped to 300 thousand last week. This beat the estimate of 314 thousand and marked the lowest reading since May 2007. With the Federal Reserve looking to trim its QE program and speculation rising about a possible interest rate increase, every employment release is under the market microscope.

Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve minutes was eagerly anticipated, but the minutes did not shed light on the question of when the Fed might raise interest rates. Policymakers expressed concern about speculation over this issue, but didn't say when the central bank might change its current monetary policy. The minutes were more dovish than expected, and the US dollar responded with losses.

AUD/USD for Thursday, April 10, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

AUD/USD April 10 at 15:05 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9416 H: 0.9461 L: 0.9375

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9542 0.9617
  • AUD/USD has steadied on Wednesday after strong gains a day earlier. The pair punched past the 0.93 line early in the European session.
  • 0.9229 is providing strong support.
  • 0.9361 continues to provide weak resistance and was briefly breached earlier in the day. Will the pair break through this line? There is stronger resistance at 0.9446.
  • Current range: 0.9229 to 0.9361

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.9119, 0.9000 and 0.8893
  • Above: 0.9446, 0.9542, 0.9617 and 0.9703

OANDA's Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to strong gains in long positions on Thursday, reversing the trend we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, as the Australian dollar has moved higher. AUD/USD ratio is almost evenly split, pointing to a lack of bias as to which direction AUD/USD might take next.

AUD/USD continues to move upwards on Thursday. The pair is steady in the North American session.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 1:00 Australian MI Inflation Expectations. Actual. 2.4%.
  • 1:30 Australian Employment Change. Estimate 7.3K. Actual 18.1K.
  • 1:30 Australian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 6.1%. Actual 5.8%.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 314K. Actual 300K.
  • 12:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.6%.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 15B. Actual 4B.
  • 17:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.
  • 18:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -76.5B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.