Seeking Alpha
Recommended for you:
-
dasdasdasdadas
Economic analysis, macroeconomic, corporate profitability, markets
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

Summary

  • Displays ten long-term charts.
  • Charts depict various aspects of the economic situation.
  • Briefly comments upon the significance of these charts.

Please note this post is the latest update to a series of articles, the last being on October 16, 2013.

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now - 58 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession - is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the "atypical" nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following eight charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 3-18-14):

(click to enlarge)

The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-14):

(click to enlarge)

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-14):

(click to enlarge)

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (Percentage Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-27-14):

(click to enlarge)

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (Percentage Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-11-14):

(click to enlarge)

Bank Credit - All Commercial Banks (Percentage Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-11-14):

(click to enlarge)

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 4-10-14):

(click to enlarge)

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 4-4-14):

(click to enlarge)

This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of April 4, 2014, titled "March Employment Report: 192,000 Jobs, 6.7% Unemployment Rate" and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

(click to enlarge)

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3), and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 3-24-14):

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis, as they deserve close monitoring.

Source: 10 Scary Charts: April 16, 2014 Update