Cramer's Mad Money - Philip Morris Is Literally Smoking (7/19/10)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday July 19.

IBM (NYSE:IBM), Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), Philip Morris (NYSE:PM), Altria (NYSE:MO), Colgate Palmolive (NYSE:CL)

The "extremely disappointing" results from IBM (IBM) and Texas Instruments (TXN) on Monday in addition to what is expected to be a negative housing number on Tuesday will only intensify the "rolling pessimism" on The Street. Now that the euro is rising again, bears have gone back to concentrating on domestic woes. It is best to look for stocks with overseas exposure, said Cramer, because the homefront could look bleak for a while.

Philip Morris (PM) gets 100% of its revenues from overseas, and has an accidental high yield of 4.6%. Altria is also good with 6.5% but for the short-term, Cramer wants to focus on stocks with the most international exposure. The attitude to smoking abroad is less condemnatory than in the U.S. (Cramer emphasized that he is personally opposed to smoking); PM has 15.6% market share in the $5.5 trillion international cigarette industry. It has a diversity of brands from high-end to low, and therefore, the company doesn't get hurt when customers trade down to save money. With demand growing in emerging countries and loyal (i.e. addicted) customers, Philip Morris is literally smoking. PM has a 10 to 12% growth rate and trades at just 10.5 times earnings.

Colgate (CL) is another stock to buy on the return to domestic worries. It has 76% overseas exposure, a good amount from emerging market countries, and a 2.6% yield. CL has a strong growth rate and is "like Philip Morris without the toxins."

Get Ready for Some Negative Housing Numbers

Cramer predicts stocks on Tuesday will be sent lower on disappointing housing numbers. High unemployment and expiration of homebuyer's tax credit mean that housing starts, permits and existing home sales will be lower. Cramer thinks housing will not be strong until employment returns to normal levels.

However, Cramer emphasized what will matter will be the reaction to the numbers, not the numbers themselves. Since housebuilders will construct fewer homes and people will keep having children there will likely be an "echo boom" at some point. Housing makes up a small portion of the economy, but it has a tremendous impact on the mood of the market and investor confidence.

Know Your IPO: Green Dot (NYSE:GDOT), Ameresco (NYSE:AMRC), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)

Cramer's spotlight on two IPOs sounds like the fable of the Tortoise and the Hare; Green Dot (GDOT) is the quick hare that will turn a fast profit but will take a rest and Ameresco (AMRC) is a long-term tortoise that will win the race.

Green Spot is the largest pre-paid reloadable debit card provider in the U.S., with 3.4 million cards issued and an exclusive deal with retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT). This is a new industry with huge growth potential as credit-card shy consumers look for other alternatives to cash. There were $9 billion in pre-paid debit cards in 2008 and an expected $119 billion by 2012. The company will also benefit from financial reform as these pre-paid cards are not hit with the same restrictions as credit cards.

Green Dot is offering 3.8 million shares at $32-35. While this is the most highly-priced IPO so far this year, Cramer thinks the underwriters deliberately issued a low number of shares to keep demand high, so the IPO will increase in price. He would buy Green Dot no higher than $35, but thinks it will "take a breather" before going higher for the long-term. His main concern with the stock post-IPO is that it is a hostage to Wal-Mart, and derives 63% of its revenues from the retailer; "I used to do studies when I was at Goldman Sachs of companies that were hostage to Wal-Mart, in the end… Wal-Mart lets them go… you should cash out with them after the initial pop."

Ameresco derives 80% of its revenues from developing energy efficient projects that save governments and companies money. This $5-5.5 billion market is expected to grow at a 26% pace through 2011. It is estimated that the U.S. government will need $500 billion in energy investments through 2020. Legislation is very good for Ameresco's business; federal buildings have until 2015.

While both companies are hot, Cramer thinks Ameresco has more steak than sizzle. There are 8.7 million shares going public at a range of $14 to $16. Cramer thinks the stock deserves to trade at $18 so he would buy the IPO and then buy more.

Mad Mail: Niska Gas Storage Partners LLC (NYSE:NKA), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE:KMP), MarkWest Energy Partners LP (NYSE:MWE), GT Solar International (SOLR), Range Resources (NYSE:RRC)

Cramer told one viewer that he recommends accidental high-yielders: Niska Gas Storage Partners LLC (NKA), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP), and MarkWest Energy Partners LP (MWE). Concerning GT Solar International (SOLR), Cramer says he doesn't like solar in general because it needs high oil prices and government subsidies. Finally, a viewer praised Range Resources (RRC) CEO John Pinkerton for making a full disclosure of chemicals involved in the fracking procedure and calming worries about natural gas.


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