Seeking Alpha
Currencies, macro, fixed income
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

By Kenny Fisher

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday, as USD/CAD trades just above the 1.10 line in the North American session. On the release front, Canadian Wholesale Sales hit a four-month high. There was good news out of the US as well, as Existing Home Sales remained steady and the Richmond Manufacturing Index surged in March. As well, the House Price Index, a minor indicator, met expectations.

Canadian releases started the week on a positive note, as Wholesale Sales jumped 1.1% in March, beating the estimate of 0.7%. It marked the best showing by the important consumer spending indicator since last November. We'll get a look at the key event of the week on Wednesday, with the release of Core Retail Sales. Traders should keep a close look at this indicator, as an unexpected reading could affect the movement of USD/CAD.

US Existing Home Sales has been on a long downturn, reflecting trouble in the housing sector. The key indicator edged lower in March, dropping to 4.59 million, down from 4.60 million a month earlier. However, it did beat the estimate of 4.57 million, marking the first time that the indicator has beaten the forecast since August. New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday, with the markets expecting an improvement in March.

The ongoing crisis in Ukraine hasn't had much of an effect on the markets until now, but that could quickly change if the charged situation spirals out of control. Russian President Putin has threatened to act on his "right" to invade Ukraine, and has steeply raised the price that Ukraine must pay for its gas supplies. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk blasted the move as "economic aggression" and said his country must prepare for a complete cutoff of Russian gas. Meanwhile, US Vice-President Joe Biden is in Kiev in a show of support for Ukraine, and the US has said it will increase sanctions if no progress is made in resolving the crisis.

USD/CAD for Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/CAD April 22 at 14:30 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1022 H: 1.1024 L: 1.0967

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0852 1.0906 1.1000 1.1094 1.1177 1.1319

  • USD/CAD is showing little movement in Tuesday trading.
  • On the downside, the key line of 1.1000 is under strong pressure. Will the pair dip into 1.09 territory? There is stronger support at 1.0906, which is protecting the 1.09 level.
  • 1.1094 is the next resistance line. This is followed by 1.1177.
  • Current range: 1.1000 to 1.1094

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1000, 1.0906, 1.0852, 1.0775 and 1.0706
  • Above: 1.1094, 1.1177, 1.1319 and 1.1496

OANDA's Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost evenly split, indicating a lack of bias as to what direction the pair will take.

The Canadian dollar continues to trade close to the 1.10 line. The pair has edged higher in the North American session.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 Canadian Wholesale Sales. Estimate 0.7%. Actual 1.1%.
  • 13:04 US HPI. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.6%.
  • 13:59 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 0 points. Actual 7 points.
  • 14:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 4.57M. Actual 4.59M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Source: USD/CAD - Unchanged As Canadian Wholesale Sales Jumps