McAfee Could Gain Share in Antivirus and Network Security Markets

| About: McAfee Inc. (MFE)

Trefis members believe that McAfee (MFE) is poised to grab share in the the antivirus and network security markets. In the past week, hundreds of members have created forecasts for two key drivers of McAfee’s stock value: (1) Network security market share and (2) Antivirus and security software market share. Compared to the official Trefis estimate, our members believe that McAfee will capture a larger share of both markets.

These projections suggest a combined upside of nearly 9% for McAfee’s stock. See analysis below.

1. McAfee’s Network Security Market Share

The average of forecasts for McAfee Share in Network Security Market created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from 8.3% in 2010 to 10% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 7.2% in 2010 to 7.8% by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

The member estimates imply an upside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate for McAfee’s stock. In the past, McAfee Share in Network Security Market has increased from 2.1% in 2005 to 7.1% in 2009. You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view and see how network security share impacts McAfee’s stock price.

McAfee share gains in the network security market would come at the expense of Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Juniper (NYSE:JNPR), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). McAfee gains in the antivirus and security software market would come at the expense of Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC), Trend Micro (OTCPK:TMICY), and AVG Antivirus. Consumer antivirus software and network security software constitute 33% and 18%, respectively, of the $35 Trefis price estimate for McAfee’s stock.

See our complete analysis for McAfee’s network security market share.

2. McAfee’s Antivirus and Security Software Market Share

On average, Trefis members forecast that McAfee’s share of the antivirus & security software market will increase from 21.3% in 2010 to 23.3% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. By contrast, the baseline Trefis estimate projects an increase from 20.4% in 2010 to 21% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 4% to the Trefis price estimate for McAfee’s stock.

In the past, McAfee’s antivirus and security software market share has increased from 16.5% in 2005 to 20.3% in 2009.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view and see how McAfee’s share of the antivirus and security software market impacts the company’s stock price.

Disclosure: No positions