Over the past week, Trefis members have created forecasts for one key driver of Starbucks’s (SBUX) stock value: (1) Number of Daily Customers per Store. Their forecasts suggest that this driver will trend slightly higher than the Trefis forecast.
Company-owned stores contribute 46% to the $24 Trefis price estimate for Starbucks’ stock, versus 28% for franchised stores. Caribou Coffee is Starbucks’ closest competitor in the specialty coffeehouse market, although Caribou has fewer outlets. Starbucks also faces competition from low-priced, fast food chains such as McDonald’s (MCD) and Dunkin’ Donuts.
Given the importance of both company-owned and franchise business, Starbucks’ stock is quite sensitive to Number of Daily Customers per Store. Below is the chart showing recent estimates created by Trefis members.
The average of forecasts for Number of Daily Customers per Store created by Trefis members indicates a projected increase from 425.9 in 2010 to 544.5 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 434.3 in 2010 to 531.2 by the end of the Trefis forecast period.
The member estimates imply an upside of 2% to the Trefis price estimate for Starbucks’s stock. In the past, Number of Daily Customers per Store has decreased from 462.9 in 2005 to 423.7 in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trendline above to express your own view, and see how changing customer traffic volumes impact Starbucks’s stock value.
Disclosure: No positions