Ingersoll-Rand's CEO Discusses Q1 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Ingersoll-Rand plc (NYSE:IR)

Q1 2014 Earnings Conference Call

April 23, 2014 10:00 AM ET

Executives

Janet Pfeffer – Vice President of Treasury & Investor Relations

Michael W. Lamach – Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President

Susan K. Carter – Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President

Analysts

Steven E. Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

David Raso – ISI Group Inc.,

Jeffrey T. Sprague – Vertical Research Partners, LLC

Jo Blackshaw – Goldman Sachs International

Julian C. H. Mitchell – Credit Suisse Securities, LLC

Andrew Obin – Merrill Lynch

Stephen E. Volkmann – Jefferies LLC

Deane M. Dray – Citigroup Inc

Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley

Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura Securities Co. Ltd

Josh C. Pokrzywinski – MKM Partners LLC

Stephen Tusa – JPMorgan Securities LLC

Jeffrey D. Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Jamie Sullivan – RBC Capital Markets LLC

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Ingersoll Rand First Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time (Operator Instructions) Please note that today’s conference is being recorded. I would like to hand the conference over to Janet Pfeffer, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead ma’am.

Janet Pfeffer

Thank you, Karen. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Ingersoll-Rand's first quarter 2014 conference call. We released earnings at 7:00 a.m. this morning and the release is posted on our website. We'll be broadcasting, in addition to this phone call through our website at ingersollrand.com, where you can find a slide presentation that we will be using this morning. This call will be recorded and archived on our website.

If you'd please go to Slide 2. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to vary from anticipated. This release also includes non-GAAP measures, which are explained in the financial tables attached to our news release.

To introduce the participants on this morning’s call: Mike Lamach, Chairman and CEO; Sue Carter, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Joe Fimbianti, Director of Investor Relations.

With that, please go to Slide 3, and now I'll turn it over to Mike.

Michael W. Lamach

Great. Thanks, Janet. And good morning and thanks for joining us on today's call. In the first quarter, we delivered GAAP earnings per share of $0.27, which includes $0.02 of restructuring, translating to adjusted EPS of $0.29. That's $0.01 above the top of our earnings guidance range and a 32% increase versus the first quarter of 2013. Revenues were $2.7 billion up 3% versus last year. Revenues were consistent with our guided revenue range of up 2% to 3% for the quarter.

Orders were up 5% in the first quarter with climate up 7% and industrial down 1%. Against the top industrial comp, last year’s first quarter include two significant project awards. Adjusted operating margin which excludes restructuring from both years was up 60 basis points. Climate margins increased 210 basis points. Pricing exceeded direct material inflation marking three, four years of 12 consecutive quarters of consistent execution and our pricing capability.

We did experience severe weather in the quarter which impacted our ability to produce HVAC parts and ship in several locations. In most instances, the teams were able to makeup those shipments during the quarter. Club Car's performance was the most severely impacted with two significant interest loans in Augusta, on top of an already full first quarter order book.

While the team was able to makeup total loss days of production, some shipments were delayed until the second quarter. And Sue, will give you some color on Club Car in a few minutes. So the tireless efforts of our employees were able to overcome this challenge and deliver to our customers as well as for our shareholder in the quarter. Like to thank and acknowledge our employees for dedication during some very long days and weeks in the first quarter. We repurchased 13 million shares in the first quarter and have completed the December 2012 $2 billion repurchase authorization.

Now Sue will walk you through in more detail on the first quarter and I’ll then take you through our second quarter and 2014 outlook.

Susan K. Carter

Thanks Mike. Let me give you a high level summary and then dive into the details. Our bookings for the quarter were up 5%, revenues were up 3% and our operating margins without restructuring were up 60 basis points year-over-year. Reported earnings per share were $0.27 and adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $0.29 versus guidance rising in volume were a little bit better and more than offset the operating inefficiencies we experienced due to the weather, taking as $0.01 above our guidance range.

Now let’s go to Slide 4. Orders for the first quarter of 2014 were up 5% on a reported basis and excluding currency. Climate orders were up 7%. Global commercial HVAC bookings were up low-single digits. Transport orders were up high-teens led by container orders. Orders in the Industrial segment were down 2% excluding currency. As Mike noted, there were two significant awards in the first quarter of 2013 making an external challenging comparable. Club Car orders were up low-single digits.

Now let’s go to Slide 5. Here's a look at the revenue trends by segment in regions. The top half of the chart shows revenue change for each segment. For the total company, first quarter revenues were up 3% versus last year on a reported basis and 4% excluding currency. Excluding currency, climate revenues increased 5% with HVAC revenues up low-single digits and transport revenues up low-teens. Residential HVAC revenues were up mid-single digits. Industrial revenues were essentially flat on a reported basis and excluding currencies. I will give more color on each segment in the next few slides.

On the bottom chart, which shows revenue change on a geographic basis, revenues were up 3% in the Americas, 6% in EMEA and Asia was up 3%, all excluding foreign exchange.

Let’s go to Slide 6. This chart walks through the change in operating margin from the first quarter of 2013 of 4.5% to first quarter of 2014 which was 5.7%. This chart is on a reported basis, however we have clearly found out the impact of restructuring cost for you. Volume mix and foreign exchange collectively were 20 basis points positive versus prior year. Our pricing programs continue to outpace material inflations adding 40 basis points to margins.

Productivity versus other inflation was 50 basis point positive margin impact in the quarter and this is particularly good performance in my view given the inefficiencies we know were experienced from the ERP base to go-live much of which were planned and the disruptions and resulting inefficiencies from weather. Year-over-year investment and restructuring were lowered by 10 basis points in total.

In the box, you can see that this is comprised of 50 basis points of headwind from investments and a 60 basis point benefit from lower restructuring cost. So if you prefer to look at this on an adjusted basis, adjusted margins increased in net of 60 basis points versus 120 basis points on a reported basis.

Let’s turn to Slide 7. The Climate segment includes Trane commercial and residential HVAC and Thermo King transport refrigeration. Total revenues for the first quarter were just over $2 billion. That’s up 4% versus last year on a reported basis and up 5% excluding currency. Global commercial HVAC orders were up low-single digits. Orders were up in the Americas and Europe and down in Asia. Trane’s commercial HVAC first quarter revenues were up low-single digits. Revenues were up mid-single digits in Europe and Asia and flat in the Americas. Commercial HVAC equipment revenues were up low-single digits, while HVAC parts, services and solutions revenues were up mid-single digits versus prior year.

Thermo King orders were up high-teens versus 2014's first quarter with a significant increase in container orders. Thermo King revenues were up low-teens, with truck trailer revenue up high-single digits and marine container revenues up significantly. Residential HVAC revenues were up mid-single digits versus last year. Unit volumes were also up mid-single digits and mix was positive in the quarter. The adjusted operating margin for Climate was 6.6% in the quarter, 210 basis points higher than first quarter of 2013 due to volume and productivity, partially offset by inflation. Notably the North American HVAC businesses, commercial plus residential leveraged at over 200% in the quarter.

Let’s go to Slide 8. First quarter revenues for the Industrial segment were $682 million, up slightly from last year’s first quarter. For the Industrial segment excluding Club Cars, revenues were up low-single digits and orders were down low-single digits versus last year.

Revenues in the Americas and Asia Pacific were up low-single digits while revenues in Europe, Middle East and Africa were up mid-single digits. Revenues in the air compressor business were up mid-single digits with strong gains in centrifugal and oil free products. Club Car revenues in the quarter were down high-single digits while orders were up low-single digits versus prior year. Increased revenues from golf cars were more than offset by delayed shipments in utility vehicles and by lower demand as a result of weather and aftermarket. Club Car’s revenues in the quarter were negatively impacted by weather. Cold temperatures across the U.S. negatively impacted demand for their products as well as aftermarket. Rounds played were down almost 20% year-over-year.

In addition, two severe storms hit Augusta, Georgia causing production to shutdown for several days in January and February as well as causing inbound and outbound logistics delays. Well in most of our businesses, we were able to compensate for any loss days due to weather by increasing capacity in March. Club Car seasonal business was already scheduled at full capacity in March, already working in multiple shifts in weekends as they do every March. And much of that revenue shifted out of the first quarter. The logistic issues from the storm also resulted in incremental costs incurred for premium freight less than optimal outbound loads and additional overtimes. Industrial's operating margins of 11.6% was down to 320 basis points on flat volumes compared with last year as productivity was more than offset by the disruptions of Club Car inflation and investment.

Now let's turn to Slide 9. Working capital as a percentage of revenue was 4.4% of revenue in the quarter. We normally use cash in the first quarter as we build for the cooling season. First quarter free cash flow was an outflow of $177 million with revenues in the quarter back-end loaded in March, ending receivable balances were higher than expected and will be worked down over the coming months.

Please go to Slide 10. We have repurchased 13 million shares or $800 million in the first quarter and as expected that completed our $2 billion repurchase authorization. As you know, a new $1.5 billion authorization was approved by the Board in February. As we indicated in our last earnings release, we have begun to spend under that authorization in April utilizing the final portion of the distribution from the Allegion spin-off. Our forecast for the year remains to spend between $1.375 billion and $1.475 billion and repurchased with $400 million to $500 million of that coming from free cash flow. We expect the majority of that to be spent in the second half of the year.

And with that I will turn it back to Mike to take you through guidance.

Michael W. Lamach

Okay, thanks Susan. Please go to Slide 11. As you know the first quarter comprises only 10% of our annual earnings given the seasonality of our businesses. In the aggregate, markets were about what we thought they would be some of them better and some of them weaker, but in total the bottom-line with our outlook going into the year. You saw that in our first quarter revenues which were in line with our guidance. Guys put in place forecast for 2014, shipped it somewhat in the latest update. The commercial and industrial forecast was revised up, while the institutional forecast was revised downward. In total, the 2014 forecast is slightly higher. Again commercial and industrial buildings tend to use more unitary equipment, while the institutional markets tend to use more applied equipment.

Single family housing activity was adversely impacted by weather although a full-year forecast is still from mid to high single-digit growth in industrial unit volumes. Transport markets had a good start for the year particularly in Europe and in marine. We continue to expect the full-year North America trailer market to be flat to slightly up on a unit basis and industrial markets were fairly slow in the quarter. All that said the second quarter as a much more excelling quarter in which engage the balance of the year. Given that and as is our normal practice, we’re maintaining our full-year guidance for both revenue and earnings at this time. We will be taking a look at the full-year outlook again and we talk to you in July.

Please go to Slide 12. The second quarter guidance referred to the right hand column on the chart shown. Second quarter 2014 revenues are forecasted to be up 4% to 5%. We expect relatively stronger in Climate than in industrial but those should be in a low to mid single digit range. Second quarter GAAP, continuing earnings per share are forecasted to be in the range $1.08 to $1.12. Restructuring costs are expected to be about $0.01 in the quarter. So on an adjusted basis, the EPS range is $1.09 to $1.13. We are assuming an average share count of $275 million and a tax rate of 25%. For full-year 2014, we expect to generate free cash flow of $900 million.

So in closing, we’re pleased to have delivered at above our earnings commitment in the first quarter, despite some challenges. As we ahead into the seasonally important second quarter, I feel good about our positioning and our focus for the balance of the year. Now Sue and I will be happy to take your questions and Karen I will turn it over you to moderate.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from line of Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein.

Steven E. Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

Hi, good morning and congrats Mike.

Michael W. Lamach

Thanks Steve.

Steven E. Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

Nice quarter, a couple of questions. One, I got hearing a lot about these systems in ERP issues through the quarter that I think it pushed out expectations as well. Can you maybe give us some color on what actually happened on that front? How you have mitigated it and what the status is if it’s all through all that?

Michael W. Lamach

Yes, Steve, I kind of thought it would be managed (indiscernible) that might be first on the list. So I will give a bit more of an extensive answer here, I think trying to help anybody else in the queue from serving a question, so I will cover pretty my detail. We went live with phase II and again the sixth phase ERP implementation in mid-February, actually February 10 was the date that we went live. It included a large portion of our European transport business that was a small portion of our compressed air systems and services business and it include ordering, warehouse, logistics, modules for North American commercial unitary and residential HVAC businesses. So we planned for a post go-live on a stabilization period of about four to six weeks, which was normal when you have a system go-live.

And then for stock businesses, we built an inventory buffer to compensate, so we expect a lower productivity during the system downtime, just prior to go-live and then as people get used to new standard work-in processes going forward. And then our experience and that of all the folks were working with would be that it takes about six months post launch to achieve the expected productivity benefits than from a conversion of like that. So the TK and the airs business launches went very smoothly and unitary conversion was much more typical, and productivity grew by just mentioned a second ago.

We planned an additional ten days inventory to be held at the unitary warehouses and we have that in place by the end of January. On the 29th and 30th of January, several plants were shutdown due to the first snow storm and ice storm that Sue alluded to. And then of course with the knock-on impact and (indiscernible) all the way in that process as well. And what usually happens after something like that as you see demand play after this one clear which we saw and that’s depleted a portion of the buffer that was in place.

Now the second storm actually hit two days after the go-live, which shutdown a number of factories for about 4 days and to have the same logistics and demand knock-on effects, I mean that one as well. So by February 15, our 10 day buffer stock was largely depleted. And so we had a full core process on from mid-February until we ended the quarter and I would say by quarter end we were able to keep shipping pace with incoming order flow. And I’ll further say that in April, we continue to see better productivity each week.

So as of today, we think has past few backlogs, forecast shipped in the second quarter primarily in the residential business and I would say it’s about one week of higher backlog than we saw last year whether we would like to have at this time. But as you saw, Steve, leveraged 57% and then specifically the Trane North-America businesses which we raised and in commercial delivered 230% operating leverage in the quarter which was phenomenal, so net, net with all disruptions from weather and the new systems, we delivered a really great quarter in Climate.

And I just want to say again I couldn’t be anymore proud of our customer service and our warehouse people and the operation of the business teams that went really the extra mile to satisfy customers during weather disruptions and the system transition that was a beautiful thing. We expect to hit business case productivity levels inline with what I said earlier that would be in the August timeframe, I think we would be running that the business case, (indiscernible) productivity.

Steven E. Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

Hey, great.

Michael W. Lamach

Yes.

Steven E. Winoker – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

And then may be higher level of question. On Nelson Peltz rejoined from the Board that we saw, are you likely to still the feet, and what kind of skill set that are you thinking you have answered? What’s been lost and how are you thinking about that?

Michael W. Lamach

Well, the Nelson coming off in June and two directors come off next year. We’ll go out and look at it, Christchurch ideally would love to have somebody with international large scale P&L experience in the industrial setting. So we’re out there and over the next 15 months or so, we’ll be kind of looking through at the Head of the Board around those three departures that have planned over the next year, 15 months. Probably looking to fill two and have a Board size of about 11.

Operator

Thank you and our next question comes from the line of David Raso from the ISI Group.

David Raso – ISI Group Inc.

Hi, good morning. On the margins for the year by segment, I am just going to get a feel for how are you thinking about the full year for both margins, obviously climate had a greater quarter, industrial disappointment. Could you jut update us on the thoughts for margins free segments for the year and then I have a question related to that for 2Q?

Susan K. Carter

David, it is Sue. So as we think about the full year and again we haven’t changed our guidance for the full year outlook, so this is going to be pretty much information you know. Climate operating income margin, we expect 40 basis points to 80 basis points improvements over last year and on the industrial segment flat to up about 20 basis points.

David Raso – ISI Group Inc.

Okay. So on the industrial, it gets back on track for that, it appears what the second quarter is implying for margins. I assume you’re looking for a nice snapback in industrial margins for the quarter where industrial margins will be up year-over-year in 2Q?

Susan K. Carter

Yes, so let’s talk about the second quarter, so the guidance we would be looking at sort of low single-digits on revenue growth for the business and operating margins, backing perhaps the 16% and 16.5% range.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

Jeffrey T. Sprague – Vertical Research Partners, LLC

Thank you. Good morning. First just on price and cost, Mike, you said price overcame materials cost inflation, but did you actually have net materials cost inflation or material is actually grinding a little bit lower here?

Susan K. Carter

So let me, I jump in and look at your question. So when we think about the first quarter, I mean obviously the direct material inflation is pretty same and perhaps there is a little noise in that, as we get towards the end of the year, but if you think about in total if we saw about 50 basis points of price and then as we talked about in the call about 40 basis points overall for price versus direct material inflation.

So when we think about the price we’ve got positive points in both of our segments and no positive in TK, positive in Trane, commercial and res and so we feel pretty good about that pricing and again direct material inflation pertained in Q1, probably pertained through the first half and then maybe some noise around CO in the back half of the year.

Jeffrey T. Sprague – Vertical Research Partners, LLC

And then my second question is on the investment spend, should we still expect something in the neighborhood of $0.18 for the year and that kinds of appears from your commentary that most of that spend was in industrial this quarter, is that correct, have you addressed both of those spends?

Susan K. Carter

Yes, so I think the full-year remains about the same. And as we think about the first quarter versus the full-year, I would say that more of the investments spend, it had a bigger impact on the industrial margins in the first quarter but again it will be pretty balanced as we go through the year, but the total hasn’t really changed.

Operator

Thank you and our next question comes from the line of Jo Blackshaw from Goldman Sachs.

Jo Blackshaw – Goldman Sachs International

Hi, good morning everyone.

Michael W. Lamach

Hi, Jo.

Jo Blackshaw – Goldman Sachs International

So I thought the incremental margins this quarter were pretty doing good in north of the 25% number that we talked about last quarter despite the ERP issues, the weather issues and Climate and Club Car disruptions, is there a potential catch-up embedded into your 2Q guidance and perhaps. Maybe you can talk a little bit about whether your incremental margins are conservative for the remainder of the year?

Susan K. Carter

So Jo, as we think about leverage in our terminology obviously you know the Climate businesses had very good leverage in the first quarter at 57% and then overall for the company about 26% for the business. So when you think about Q2 and what that means, the guidance would sort of give you the implication that the overall leverage for the company is up around the 40% level with just north of 30% coming out of the operating segment and then you start to get some tailwind out of the corporate expenses also.

And so you, obviously as we look at it, in the second quarter the guidance looks right to us. Again the business is just over 30% total, just over 40% as we do start to get some of that corporate uptick. The full year, obviously what we haven’t changed anything, we’re still sticking with the story that we had in the upper 30s for the full year with 25 coming out of the businesses but in fairness as we go through the second quarter and we come back in the month of July and talk about the total year, we will take another look at that.

Joe Ritchie – Goldman Sachs

That's helpful, Sue. And just one follow-up question, it looks like you took up your free cash flow guidance to the upper end of your range. I think you had $850 million to $900 million last quarter, now you're at $900 million. Pretty good free cash flow as the year progresses. Talk to us a little bit about your uses of that cash specifically as it relates to buy back and MM&A?

Susan K. Carter

So we talked about what we were going to do on share repurchase and we said that that we completed the $2 billion authorization that we’re spending on the remaining of Allegion money about $175 million in the second quarter, and then we said we take about $400 million to $500 million of the free cash flow and applied to share buyback in the year and that’s – that sort of get you the first quarter plus the second, the final Allegion dollars and then the $400 million to $500 million get you to that, $1.375 billion to $1.425 billion that we talked about in the script.

And so then if you think about that with the $900 million of free cash flow guidance that’s roughly about half of the free cash flow and we said that what we would do is with the remainder is it’s toggled between M&A and investments in the business in share repurchase for the remainder of the free cash flow.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell from Credit Suisse.

Julian C. H. Mitchell – Credit Suisse Securities, LLC

Hi, thanks a lot. I guess the first question was around the mix of business within the climate segment. If you look at the institutional facing businesses, I think those were down slightly. The applied business was down slightly. You talked before about applied being flat for the year. Are you still sticking with that? And maybe just talk a little bit about what you're seeing in your applied customers in terms of quotation and order activity?

Michael W. Lamach

So it’s mixed globally Julian, but I think North America tends to be the focus of the question typically. Interestingly, when you look at bookings in the first quarter, the North America applied, they are actually up high-single digits. If you look at unitary North America, they’re actually up high-teens. And one thing that you probably had identified here is that there is a buy, sell component of what we do often tied to contract and we might do a performance contract and have a pump set made by somebody else that we sell through to the end customer. That’s actually the business that’s down. So what we’re seeing in terms of an uptick in our bookings for resourcing of our plants, absorption of our plants, it would lend toward a decent back half of the year, kind of recovering back up to the level that we have thought. So it’s actually a very good quarter in both applied and unitary in North America.

I would say that that the weakness is probably more around the mature economy which we could include China and Asia-Pacific. And it’s just a matter of which segments of the market are going to be working there and not specifically in China, it’s easy to identify it’s going to be areas like nuclear, pharma, food and it’s going to be away from some of the housing industries like shipbuilding and so on and so forth. So we will adjust accordingly, and how we are looking at that, so. And then Europe has been very strong for us as well, in fact the applied business in Europe was up high-single digit. So it’s pretty good quarter for bookings and I think we’ll see that flow through to the balance of the year and obviously for the Climate segment, we should end on higher note.

Julian C. H. Mitchell – Credit Suisse Securities, LLC

Thanks. And then in terms of the gross productivity measures, is it fair to say that those have been fairly steady the past six months? I guess in Q4 you just have a costs rising up to offset that and then they fell back again in Q1, but overall gross productivity should be fairly steady through the balance of the year, there was nothing special in Q1?

Michael W. Lamach

Well, remember too that the gross productivity really hasn’t changed much between Q4 and Q1 for operations. That uptick we saw was really on headquarter spending, it related to lot of the benefit plans and changes that had to be approved from the fourth quarter on a strong year. So but operationally, what we were planning to run was about 120% of the pipeline that we think we needed the productivity in a given quarter or year and that’s been a pretty good mechanism for us to make sure we’ve got enough on the productivity pipeline to keep things coming. So it was a good quarter, but the underlying productivity in quarter four was good too. I think it was a little bit misunderstood because of the blurring all the adjustments and accruals made outside of operations in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from BofA Merrill Lynch.

Andrew Obin – Merrill Lynch

Hey guys. Just a question on the industrial side. And I'm just surprised that given all the excitement about short cycle industrial recovery, industrial even ex the Club Car business is sort of not doing better. Can you talk about what kind of visibility we have on industrial in mature markets in North America and Europe?

Michael W. Lamach

Well, visibility on compressed air systems and services is pretty good, Andrew and we got a pretty look there for the most part when you – as you look at the quarter about two-thirds of the leverage missed expectation would have been through the Club Car and they did a fantastic job getting golf fleets out in the quarter, but what had to give was the ability to get some of the utility vehicles that go with that out which will be through second quarter and third quarter of this year.

The remaining one-third on the deleverage piece of that was heavy in terms of the investments question was asked earlier and a lot of that is not just in channel and not in product, but it’s also in kind of putting the right level of talent into these business units power tools, fluid management, material handling. We are seeing really good bookings in material handling, as an example. We are seeing very good bookings and fluid managements little weaker – little weaker in capacity, and Club Cars as we have mentioned has got low-single digit growth. So I feel like for the long cycle businesses, which really are minor at our Club Car, material handling and the compressed air assessment services business, pretty good visibility for the year. Power tools tends to be motor spot buy and fluid management attracts with a lot of what you are seeing in comparables in other companies as well. So and just that core visibility too at this point. I feel good about the plan, we’ve got for the balance of the year to bring margins back up over the balance of the year.

Andrew Obin – Merrill Lynch

And just to clarify on orders, do you think orders were impacted by the weather? And if yes, you think you're going to get them back in second quarter?

Michael W. Lamach

Orders not so much, shipments of Club Car, absolutely but orders not so much. And so I wouldn’t think there will be much or more of a push there. I would suppose that I would think about it being something more fundamental being pushed in the second quarter. We think didn’t have any issues in any of our factories whether it would be Climate or Industrial, I don’t think we lost a minute of downtime to anything other than weather. So we were able to keep up the inventory levels where we had stocking in tools and fluids were pretty good.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies.

Stephen E. Volkmann – Jefferies LLC

Hey, good morning. I might be splitting hairs a little bit here, but I guess I'm just trying to think through this order question as well. You put up a couple quarters of 5%, but they are only kind of guiding the year up 3% to 4% in terms of revenue. Is there anything that would lead you believe things will decelerate going forward or is this just kind of normal conservatism?

Michael W. Lamach

I think it’s got a more of a long cycle view as to whether or not we think things will happen in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year that picked on some of the bookings we’re seeing, a very large compressed air business services and very large applied HVAC orders and that’s two areas that as you look through that and sort of some delays on these projects are particularly from some of the matured economies in Asia, it’s a little bit hard to pinpoint exactly when we would see those, revenue for the year.

So that’s probably the one blind spot. I would also say that as you look at our year, 10% in the first quarter of earnings, really there is a lot of runway left here for the balance of the year and for us pressure conservative a view, so much of it is a pragmatic view that we got a long way to go for the year. So I think July for us is a much more useful update for you than it would be, I would try to pinpoint here in April.

Stephen E. Volkmann – Jefferies LLC

Okay. I can appreciate that. And maybe if I could ask you to comment on the tenor of the quarter? Did things get kind of better into March? And any early read on April yet?

Michael W. Lamach

March was pretty good for us. You know I will tell you that, you know, we have good strength, even in the HVAC res business, January and February just picked up the second hearty sell through. We actually matched the five in January and the nine in February. March we haven’t seen yet. So we’re anxious at some point to get that data as well but we're matching at least the hearty segment there, and I think that we were happy with March’s performance. I am not going to give you much more of a read in the second quarter, it’s pretty early for us and I think I said all along so much of the year, we really delivered in the last couple of weeks of June for us.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray from Citi Research.

Deane M. Dray – Citigroup Inc

Thank you. Good morning everyone.

Michael W. Lamach

Good morning.

Deane M. Dray – Citigroup Inc

Mike, I had a question on the potential that Douglas systems would gain more adoption in the U.S. and in Europe. So just looking in your crystal ball today, how fast might you see the take on Douglas? What might be gaining factors be in this Trane, have the right capacity in place to response to this demand, if it does comes through?

Michael W. Lamach

Yeah, we’re counting on the world being a Douglas placed and being a player across the world in all geographies. It is interesting that we don’t hear as we much about Douglas portions in other parts of the world, but our unitary business in Asia was the larger business; it is actually a 35% in the quarter. So we’re growing in that business as well. We want to have a full product suite, we want to have Douglas systems, we want to have applied and unitary systems and then we want to have hybrid systems where it XSense of, it’s really a matter of building up portfolio. Relative to your question about do we have the product portfolio, I would say yes we do and if we don’t we have the right partnerships, but I think we’re doing the right things for the results in position to be a global player in all technologies.

Deane M. Dray – Citigroup Inc

Great and then for Sue, I was hoping you comment on the stranded cost from Allegion size first where it stands and what’s the Horizon is for taking those costs out?

Susan K. Carter

Okay so the best way to think about all of that is to think about most of those stranded costs being in the corporate number. So as we have talked about corporate and what we think corporate will look like, the unallocated portion of it for 2014, we expect that to be about $200 million for the year. 2013 and that corporate number was $260 million, so there were about $40 million of stranded cost which came out and then about $20 million of other savings that we planned into 2014. So in the fourth quarter, we did all our restructuring actions that again some of those fell over into the two senses that we saw in Q1, but those costs are primarily out of Ingersoll-Rand. We are completely with that restructuring in the stranded cost have gone away.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Morgan Stanley.

Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley

Well, thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to (indiscernible) of North-American Trane leverage, you call that 20% incremental margins and that’s going volumes are still pretty like that, but I’m wondering could you just talk about base cost productivity pricing and how does that’s been leveraged as the volumes pickup 15 years, types of those, what sort of incremental margins could you get from Trane North-America?

Michael W. Lamach

Well, Nigel, it was about point of productivity looking at core gross productivity, less total inflation and then from a price perspective, about 70 points on price alone. So in general they just done a good job of consistent productivity to keep the pipeline full, there’s not been a silver bullet, same things as we’ve talking about four, five years there and just a very excellent quarter, excellent execution of that. The startup, it wasn’t weather related. We did lose a minute in production in many of our factories, so I’m proud of that. I’m not sure what else I could really to tell you on that one.

Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley

How that business will leverage as particularly the commercial HVAC volumes start to pick up?

Michael W. Lamach

Nigel, as we think we’ll leverage at about the gross margin of the business and so I’d be looking potentially if that would be as high as 30 and as we set as low as 25, this is where the guidance is.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan from Nomura Securities.

Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura Securities Co. Ltd

Good morning.

Michael W. Lamach

Hi, Shannon.

Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura Securities Co. Ltd

Hey Mike, maybe just to follow-up on that. I mean the 57% conversion in climate, and I think you said 230% North American Trane, I mean I know you're expecting good leverage going forward, but I guess what are the things that make it come down from that level?

Michael W. Lamach

Well it is a timing of productivity. I mean there were no one half that happened; it’s somewhat on low growth, the law of small numbers working for you in this case as well. So I just think as you would kind of get into a fuller year with larger numbers and more normalized in margins incrementals going forward. You’re going to tend to revert back to gross margins business. That's fundamentally what the view is.

Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura Securities Co. Ltd

Okay, no, that makes sense. And then just maybe update, you talk about potentially toggling to M&A, I mean what are your current views of that market in terms of what's out there and how active do you think you might be?

Michael W. Lamach

Well, we’ve been very selective. We got a small in the first quarter on energy supply company that we didn't take any headlines with that but – so we’re looking selectively. We've got a few smaller things that are really tucked into the commercial channel for HVAC that we’re looking at. But it’s been and continues to be a pretty disciplined process, really nothing or chattering, simply nothing transformational in the cars, but those, probably I would say active ideas we’re looking at, it will be based as Sue said on evaluation and a holding in Europe to our share price however our investments has been, what we think as best of the shareholder year out. So that’s our view.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from MKM Partners.

Josh C. Pokrzywinski – MKM Partners LLC

Hi, good morning guys.

Michael W. Lamach

Good morning.

Josh C. Pokrzywinski – MKM Partners LLC

So just maybe to beat this operating leverage question to death, looking at 2Q, it seems like a lot of that strength persists and I know you mentioned that 1Q, some of that's just a function of good productivity on smaller absolute volume numbers. I guess that implies some decel there in second half. Is that a comprehensive view on maybe some of that problematic steel pricing that you mentioned or lower productivity pipeline for the second half or is that just we don't have the visibility yet to make that call?

Susan K. Carter

As I think one of the ways I would look at it, and Mike can add his thoughts afterwards. As we talked about where we expect the second quarter to be and that we really haven’t updated the guidance for the full year and that we were talking more about that in the July. I think what you are seeing on that leverage and the calculation is just a math at this point in time, I think we feel good about, we feel very good about where climate came out in the first quarter. We feel very good about where we’re looking at both businesses as Mike said in roughly the gross margin territory for the second quarter and as we get into July, we’ll give you more color on what we think of the full year will look like.

Michael W. Lamach

Yes, Josh, I'd probably add what I am looking at quarter one and quarter two from both segments and the productivity really says same which is exactly what we were looking for as that 120% pipeline drum beat that with breakage products that you get so what you, you thought you would get 100% maybe do better that’s always a good thing, if you can do better, but it is split, is there going to a pipeline. I would say that investments would pickup, particularly in the climate business a little bit, tying with the things, like new product launches, but and also you get second quarter the effect of all the wage increases, which across the company start in April 1.

So you’ve got a little bit of a run rate change there and the wage fixtures up, every (indiscernible) back or something like the gross margins, and that’s a pretty steady drumbeat that we look to obtain overtime. So we are going to have great quarters like we had – and we are going to have some weak quarters in there, but 25 is a good number we have planned with 30 that would be the gross margins of the business. So that’s what we look to do.

Josh C. Pokrzywinski – MKM Partners LLC

Okay, that's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, and I think Nigel asked this question, I don't know if you addressed it directly, any differences between applied and unitary? I know you've done some big product refreshes on both sides. Any differences there when we start to see that applied business pick up? Whether it is mix positive or negative, I guess should we expect that to attained differently when that finally comes around?

Michael W. Lamach

Yes, with all the restructuring has been done over the last four to five years, all the five allotments taking place. We are in different really as – if unitary or applied goes up, there is really not a change in the contribution margins of the business and so, it’s the nice thing is we’re – I think, we are levered either way, and I wouldn’t expect that things would change, one way or the other with the higher applied versus unitary mix. So I mean right now, of course we are using how unitary and applied eventually it will take a back around.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

Stephen Tusa – JPMorgan Securities LLC

Hi, good morning.

Michael W. Lamach

Hi Steve.

Stephen Tusa – JPMorgan Securities LLC

The way you guys started this year, Mike, maybe you can contribute and offset some of these rounds played that are down, should be a pretty good spring for you guys sounds like.

Michael W. Lamach

Good.

Stephen Tusa – JPMorgan Securities LLC

The incremental margin question, I guess I want to get a little more precision on this because to get to $1.10 in EPS, using kind of the 4% to 5% growth rate, it seems like there is a little bit of a higher kind of implied incremental. What is corporate going to be in the second quarter? I guess and then I can kind of guess back into what that implies for the segments.

Susan K. Carter

So when you think about corporate and we are spending it should be roughly $15 million-is, can you take that $200 million for the year and it’s roughly the same throughout the quarters. And what we’ll find, when you are thinking about this in terms of leverage is that the quarters in 2013 the corporate cost and the corporate components rationally increasing. Therefore, taking out this stranded cost and taking out some of the G&A cost will provide a bigger list in terms of leverage as we go through each of the successive quarters and we do see that in the second quarter.

Stephen Tusa – JPMorgan Securities LLC

Sure. And then I guess just for the so – you can kind of based on, you told us what the industrial margin range is going to be, I'm getting something around 14% for the climate margin in 2Q?

Susan K. Carter

Yes, 13.5%, yes, somewhere nearly, you are not far off.

Michael W. Lamach

Yes, if we look at 40 to 80 basis points maybe for the full year and last year it was around 12.7% so, kind of 13.5% is public view much better number than 14% there. The incremental Sue, mentioned really in her comments, our 30% and even said, probably more precisely like 31% from the businesses together. 10 points of lift comes from the high quarter’s reduction and so there is a little better incremental margin in Q2 versus Q1. That was planned. Of course weather wasn’t planned, but the transition to the ERP system was planned and so that didn’t really change much in terms of what we had expected there.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Hey, guys. Just a couple loose end items. Can you just talk about the sustainability, the strength you’re seeing in Thermo King? And then also, the commercial HVAC orders down in Asia. Is that bad lumpiness or is that kind of the trend you’re seeing over in Asia?

Michael W. Lamach

Well, the lumpiness really has to do with just sort of the macro economy in China and we’re dealing with that like everybody else. There are some very, very big deals in Asia that would swing that, but absence of hotels, hospitals and pharma, some nuclear – there is some real weakness in some of the other segments of the market, really actually the weakness in industrial plays through the HVAC where, if not the largest, one of largest process cooling providers out in that marketplace. So then semiconductor businesses go down. We feel that in the HVAC business. They’re actually just to sustain. So that’s an example there.

Your question on TK and the outlook there, it’s a good start to the year. Containers have run more like 5% of our total TK mix. It was 10% in the quarter. Those are very, very lumpy in terms of how that works. And so the underlying businesses, we’re strong in Europe, I think that that moderates and normalize for the balance of the year. And North America, truck and trailer is about what we thought in fall of the year, little difference there. Well, that’s flat industrial volumes, but our revenue picked up some mix with the new product and more expenses with the new curve of compliance.

Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Thanks a lot.

Michael W. Lamach

Welcome.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jamie Sullivan from RBC Capital Markets.

Jamie Sullivan – RBC Capital Markets LLC

Good morning. Thanks. Mike, maybe just some of the market commentary you mentioned with the Dodge revisions? You also talked about in North America, your applied orders were up in the quarter, but you’ve also been a little more cautious on the market forecast. Just wondering if you can maybe give us an update on if these trends maybe change your view on the cycle at this point?

Michael W. Lamach

Yes, and we always look at a group of indicators. I think I say that every time. We make, but I’m always cautious. Somebody might be new to listening to a call. One of the key areas of the Dodge putting in place the starts data, which we triangulate with a couple of other metrics, one that we also think is important. This is what’s happening in terms of our own proposal pipeline that we can look at the same. So related Dodge forecast for 2014 put in place up about 8% versus 2013.

And you got to look at the underlying trends by verticals within that institutional. It’s over half of the put in place dollars, is actually forecasted to be down 2% in this revision and that’s for sixth consecutive of that happening. Of course the AVI numbers were a little bit weak this morning as well, but the commercial industrial activity is forecasted to be up 18%. So really on the commercial industrial activity, my view would be that will come down slightly from 18%. I don’t think it will stay there. I think they’ll revise it down. And I think that the applied market, at least what we’re seeing, it might be a little bit stronger than what we’re seeing there.

One of the interesting things that we saw today was that property tax receipts in the county now or at the 2008 pre-recession levels and that’s always a pretty good indicator of one institutional spending comes back, schools, K-12, healthcare, bond issuances for infrastructure, I mean those are typically, that’s a cycle we look for there. Anyway that sort of the mix that we’ve got to kind of maybe hedging back a little bit on the industrial and commercial forecast on a team, we probably (indiscernible) on the applied side, so that doesn’t really change much for the year for us.

Jamie Sullivan – RBC Capital Markets LLC

Thanks. And then just a follow-up on the resi side, maybe you can just comment on what you're seeing on the mix of efficiency levels that you're seeing in revenues and orders? And then maybe your expectations for a pre-buy or inventory build ahead of the January cut off for the new efficiency standards next year?

Michael W. Lamach

Yes things are trending toward higher efficiency, so trending up towards 2014, at this point using the 2013 there and that change is good for us, good for the industry as well. Relates to any sort of a pre-build, the nice thing here is that we’re going to have a pretty good opportunity to look at the price gap between 2014, 2013 stay at the end of the year in the marketplace. That’s going to drive a lot of what happens in terms of the pre-build of course the larger the gap, the more pre-build that you would see, the smaller the gap, less you would see.

We’ll rollup a view from all of our dealers and distributors and closer to the end of the year, a nice thing about all of that is we would be building air conditioning – our air conditioning plants in the fourth quarter which is a very seasonally low quarter. So all of that pretends to being able to take a relatively late look in the summer at that and then planning accordingly for fourth quarter based on the variables, dynamically I just mentioned.

Jamie Sullivan – RBC Capital Markets LLC

Thank you.

Michael W. Lamach

Thank you and our final question for today comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities.

Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Just to clean-up issue, you had a very impressive first quarter despite all the weather and issues and postponements, stuff like that. You have any measure of how much production was actually pushed into the second quarter from the first quarter? Particularly, looks like in industrial it's got to be measurable at this point?

Michael W. Lamach

Yes, it was exception of Club Car, everything else with the push, we had higher demands of parts and services and lower demand for few industrial parts but generally we have pushed, but Club Car was the big out layer there for us. From a production standpoint, nothing else really pushed from a distribution standpoint, I mentioned earlier, we’ve got a week more in backlog and we would like to have a residential business that can shift more orders and what we flushing that out of the next weeks or too.

Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities

Great, and could get some quantifications? Is that like $20 million or $30 million worth of production that we're going to see in catchup in the second quarter? That's looks like it's something to that effect?

Michael W. Lamach

If I looked at the resi keys of that is probably not too far off, the club car piece, second, third quarter that will kind of picking there as well. I would say that you’re probably in the ballpark on that and that’s for the quarter, you can take in the second quarter up from 4% to 5% reflects that we’ll see a little bit of that, whether it’s a 25% to maybe 40% in total but some of that.

Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities

That's helpful. And then finally, your restructuring I guess is implying $0.07 in the second half of the year, a little bigger. Is there any change causing the back half orders? Is it always been that way? And does it say anything about 2015 restructuring, since your numbers are strong in the second half of the year than the first half?

Michael W. Lamach

Maybe there were a lot of restructuring for the long time I would say. I think that what you got here is the maintenance piece, the $0.10 which has been typically what it’s run for us. And so the $0.03 being that is in the first half, we selling from the back half, that’s again one of those things you like that, in July. I think we’d have better a view, clearer view of any projects, we want to undertake third, fourth quarter and update you there, but for now that threshold that I think stands and it’s a good number to rely on.

Operator

Thank you. And that concludes our question-and-answer session for today. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any concluding comments.

Susan K. Carter

Thank you Karen We don't have any further comments. Joe and I will be around for follow-up today. Everybody have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a good day.

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