Yes, yes, I know. Everyone is all over the Ukrainian crisis, which coincided with the the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) move up. So, it must be that the Ukrainian issues caused GLD to go higher. Right? Well, then please explain to me why we were going down on Ukrainian tensions several weeks ago? The problem is, if one is intellectually honest about it, you can't explain it reasonably! Markets, especially the precious metals market, are not reasonable. GLD has gone up on news of such tensions and down on news of such tensions. So, do you really want to trade that type of correlation? I know I don't.
Yet, the masses are expecting gold to go to the sky if there are further tensions in the Ukraine in the week ahead. But, was it not those same people that were expecting gold to go to the sky on QE announcements? Well, they try to sweep that under the rug now, especially since there is really no good reason, from their perspective, as to why it did not with all that QE. In truth, it is the same camp that will look for any reason to point to why gold should go up.
But, I will implore you to turn off your CNBC, CNN, or wherever else you news junkies get your "fix," especially if your interest is to trade the metals. You would do much better to watch what the metals actually do and not assume they must do something based upon a news event.
But, I know, all us "reasonable" people want a reason for why something happens in the markets. But, the reasons I look to are very different than the ones most people look towards. Since we topped in my target region back in March, I have been looking down. I have been keeping a very close watch on whether the larger degree movements of the metals still had the potential to take us to the 136-140 ideal target, of which we came short this year. But, each time the market began an attempt to move higher, it was continually knocked down. So, is this time different? Well, again, it will depend upon market sentiment, which I attempt to glean from patterns developing in the GLD.
I want to digress and take a moment to discuss one of the triggers I look towards when trading the metals. Those that have read my analysis over the last several months know that I am looking for much lower levels in the metals in 2014. And, over the last month, or two, I have noted that breaking the 123 level was important. So, when we saw the 123 level broken this past week, I am sure that many automatically assumed that we had begun the bigger decline.
But, if you read my analysis carefully, you would have known that level had to break with strong selling volume, which I reiterated week after week. The strong selling volume shows the conviction of the market participants, and the overall sentiment of the market. This is what we normally see in a 3rd wave down, which is what the market is setting up to take us down hard. But, again, strong selling volume is the key indication of that move and the appropriate sentiment key in this set up.
So, on Thursday morning, when the market broke the 123 level, but it did so on relatively low volume, I noted to those that read my daily analysis that this break down is on low volume and until we see high volume coming in, or a break down below the .618 extension at 121.70, then we could see the market turn up, which, as we now know, is exactly what happened. But, the low volume drop below the 123 level was the key indication that had us on high alert that a minor reversal could be seen.
Does this mean I am now bullish the GLD? Absolutely not. It simply means that the market is setting up a little differently to drop the hammer to lower levels. As I have said many times before, it would take a strong move through the 131.50 level to make me even consider that we could still be attempting to attain our initial targets for GLD of 136-140 before we make our move to lower lows. And, this is not my primary expectation at this time. I still do not see any clear evidence just yet that the market has this intention. In fact, unless the GLD is able to move through the 126 level, we still have an imminent set up to take us down hard towards the 113-115 region next.
Disclosure: I am long SLV. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I have intermediate term puts on GLD