Business Capital Spending Flat; Consumers In Moderate Mode

Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY
by: Dr. Bill Conerly

Business Capital Spending Flat

Businesses are not growing their capital expenditures, though we can take a little comfort that neither are they shrinking them.


Corporations are sitting on lots of cash, and interest rates are very low for credit-worth companies. The problem is lack of optimism. When I do see companies spending money, it's to lower operating costs through labor or energy savings. Few companies are increasing their productive capacity (aside from energy, agriculture and high tech).

Looking forward, this is the sector that might push the economy upward. If we got enough growth that business leaders decided they needed to add capacity, then increased capital spending would start a virtuous cycle in job gains, spending gains, and further capacity additions. Don't hold your breath this year, but there are grounds for optimism for next year.

Consumers In Moderate Mode

Consumers are feeling better about current conditions and prospects for the future, but the improvement is gradual and subject to short-term swings.

Consumer Sentiment

Business leaders reading the papers or watching TV might think that "consumers are tapped out." Neither the consumer attitude surveys nor actual spending support this hypothesis. Consumers are in moderate mode--not stretching to spend more, not hunkering down for the apocalypse. Expect continued gradual growth in 2014, but possibly an acceleration of spending next year.