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ESPN, owned by Disney (NYSE:DIS), is the global leader in sports video programming and arguably the world’s most popular sports channel. Disney competes with other media and broadcasting companies like Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) and News Corp (NASDAQ:NWS). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $38 for Disney’s stock, about 11% above the current market price of $34.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Disney’s stock over the last week: (1) ESPN Fee per Subscriber and (2) ESPN EBITDA Margin. The member forecasts for ESPN Fee per Subscriber trend slightly above the Trefis forecast.

ESPN is the most valuable division for Disney, constituting around 32% of the $38 Trefis price estimate for Disney’s stock. ESPN telecasts popular shows like SportCenter and also has rights to major sporting events like the NFL, NBA, and the FIFA World Cup.

Disney’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) ESPN Fee per Subscriber and (2) ESPN EBITDA Margin. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

1. ESPN Fee per Subscriber

The average of forecasts for ESPN Fee per Subscriber created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from $3.40 per month in 2010 to $4 per month by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from $3.30 per month in 2010 to $3.60 per month by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 2% to the Trefis price estimate for Disney’s stock. In the past, ESPN Fee per Subscriber has increased from $2.30 per month in 2004 to $3.20 per month in 2009.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Disney’s stock to ESPN Fee per Subscriber.

Our complete analysis for ESPN Fee per Subscriber is here.

2. ESPN EBITDA Margin

The average of forecasts for ESPN EBITDA margin created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from 41.4% in 2010 to 42.3% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 41.4% in 2010 to 44.4% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. In the past, ESPN EBITDA Margin has increased from 38.4% in 2005 to 41.4% in 2009.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Disney’s stock to ESPN EBITDA Margin.

Disclosure: No positions

Source: ESPN Is Crucial to Disney’s Success