How Much Apple's Stock Stands to Gain From Higher Mac Desktop Pricing, Market Share

| About: Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) competes with Dell (NASDAQ:DELL), HP (NYSE:HPQ), and Sony Corporation (NYSE:SNE) in the desktop PC market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $337 for Apple’s stock, about 28% above the current market price of $264.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Apple’s stock over the last week: (1) Mac Desktop Pricing and (2) Mac Desktops Market Share. The member forecasts suggest that Mac Desktop Pricing and Market Share will trend higher than the Trefis forecast. These projections suggest a combined upside of about 2% for Apple’s stock.

Macintosh Desktops form close to 3% of the $337 Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for: (1) Mac Desktop Pricing and (2) Mac Desktops Market Share.

1. Mac Desktop Pricing

The average of forecasts for Mac Desktop Pricing created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from $1,237 in 2010 to $841 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from $1,213 in 2010 to around $645 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock. In the past, Mac Desktop Pricing has hovered in the range of $1,300 – $1350 from 2005 to 2009.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Apple’s stock to Mac Desktop Pricing.

2. Mac Desktops Market Share

The average of forecasts for Mac Desktops Market Share created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from 3.3% in 2010 to 7.6% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 2.9% in 2010 to 6.5% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock. In the past, Mac Desktops Market Share has increased from 1.8% in 2005 to 2.7% in 2009.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Apple’s stock to Mac Desktops Market Share.

Disclosure: No positions