Having been deeply entrenched in the financial community for most of my professional career, I can say with great certainty that most folks would rather cling to their forecasts than make money.
It’s a sad fact. But it’s true. Most folks would rather argue about their opinions and forecasts than admit when they’re wrong, change their strategy, and make money. I’ve seen this quality in everyone from hedge fund managers to mom and pop investors. And it’s the #1 reason most folks don’t make money in the markets.
With that in mind, I am now fully and publicly admitting that my forecast of a “last hurrah” for stocks was off base. In plain terms, I do not care to cling to a forecast that is wrong. Similarly, I do not care to prance about as though I never make mistakes.
I realize that this degree of honesty is uncommon in my industry. Rarely, if ever, do financial types admit they were wrong. And they certainly never broadcast this fact to the world.
However, as you know, I make it a point of pride to always be forthright with my readers. I know there are some out there who think that the best thing to do in these situations is pretend that their bad forecasts and mistakes never happened and gloat about their success, but that’s not how I do things.
The fact is, everyone makes mistakes. The people who learn from their mistakes are the ones who end up making money with their investments. The ones who pretend they’re never wrong are the ones who lose their money time and again.
In plain terms, the market has no time for egos or illusions. The best thing to do when you’re wrong is admit it, re-assess things, and move on. So I am doing that today.
As I write this, the stock market is rolling over, having been rejected by its 200-DMA. We’ve even dipped below support at 1,090. As you know, I had previously forecast that we’d see a final hurrah in stocks: a kind of last dance before the Titanic crashed into the iceberg.
Indeed, I had received a short-term buy signal, which, despite conflicting with my intermediate-term Crash signal, lead me to believe we’d see some kind of final ramp BEFORE things came unhinged.
However, the bulls appear to have given up. They were not truly willing to work for a higher market… instead they simply rolled the boulder halfway up the hill hoping that someone else would come after them and help them complete the rest of the journey.
The problem is that no on showed up. Most investors are pulling out of the market, sensing what I’ve been warning about for over a year: that the whole thing is a giant house of cards.
Consequently, my forecast of a final hurrah appears to have been off base. I admit it, I was wrong. I overestimated the bulls. I also overestimated the degree to which investors still have confidence in liquidity solving the issues of the financial system. Indeed, the Fed has been running the printing presses day and night, but it is no longer having the same effect it did in 2009.
In plain terms, we are at a major turning point for the markets. Barring a massive QE2 announcement, the Fed’s attempts to prop things up are beginning to fail right here and now. We’re now largely in cash waiting to establish our Crisis Trades for the next leg down.
I suggest to anyone who is overly long this market to take some profits. Things are getting ugly very quickly. And as I’ve stated before, my Crash indicator remains on, sending a clear signal that we’re in for trouble ahead.
And I for one will be looking to profit from it.