ADP Employment: It's All Gravy Now

by: Bespoke Investment Group

Tomorrow morning we will get our first read on employment for the month of April when ADP releases its private payrolls report. Economists are currently forecasting an increase of 210K jobs in April, which would be the best reading since November. As shown in the chart, any increase in private payrolls going forward is all gravy now as it would represent a new high for private sector employment in the US. While that may not sound like much of a feat, last month was the first time in more than six years (January 2008) that we have been able to say that, so it has taken long enough.

Private sector payrolls are at all-time highs, but for the total economy employment is still below its peak of the prior expansion. In January 2008, total non-farm employment in the US peaked at 138.4 million workers. Following last month's payrolls report total employment stood at 137.9 million, which is still more than 400K below the all-time peak. With economists forecasting an increase of 215K in non-farm payrolls this Friday, we are more than likely going to have to wait at least one more month before we get to new highs for total employment.