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ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Rises, But Growth Rate Falls

1 comment  |  by: Kirk Lindstrom July 30, 2010  | about: SPY
   
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The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI)
For the week ending July 23, 2010
  • WLI stood at 121.1, up from the prior weeks reading of 120.6
  • WLI growth fell to minus 10.7 percent from minus 10.5 percent a week ago
Chart of WLI and WLI growth vs GDP Growth

Click to view full size chart

Since ECRI releases their WLI numbers for the prior week and the stock market, a component of WLI, is known in real time, you can often get a clue for next week's WLI from the weekly change in the stock market.

Chart of WLI vs S&P500

Notes:

  1. The WLI for the week ending 7/30/10 will be released on 8/6/10.
  2. Occasionally, the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.
Disclosure: I am long SPY (charts & quote) in my personal account and in the "Explore Portfolio" in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter."



Disclosure: Long SPY
About the author: Kirk Lindstrom
Kirk Lindstrom picture
Kirk Lindstrom has an engineering degree from the University of California, Berkeley. Following 20 years of research and development as a scientist and engineer at Hewlett Packard, Kirk turned his attention to investments where he edits "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter," that... More
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  •  
    The stock market should finish this week up.

    Post your guesses for WLI and WLI growth for next week in the comments section plus your reason why.

    (example, WLI up + WLI growth up. Reason, Bernanke dropped dollars from a helicopter this week.)
    Jul 30 11:19 AM Reply