Ford's Market Share Outlook Starting to Look Bullish

Jul.30.10 | About: Ford Motor (F)

Ford (NYSE:F) competes with other automotive companies like Daimler AG, Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE:TM) and Honda Motor Compa (NYSE:HMC). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $14 for Ford’s stock, about 10% above the current market price of around $13.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Ford’s stock over the last week: (1) Ford Car Market Share in North America and (2) Ford Truck Market Share in North America. The members’ forecast suggest that Ford Car Market Share in North America as well as Ford Truck Market Share in North America will trend higher than the Trefis forecast. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 12% for Ford’s stock.

Ford Trucks North America constitutes close to 20% of the $14 Trefis price estimate for Ford’ stock. In comparison Ford Cars North America accounts for around 12%. Ford’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Ford Car Market Share in North America and (2) Ford Truck Market Share in North America. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

1. Ford Car Market Share in North America

The average of forecasts for Ford Car Market Share in North America created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from around 13% in 2010 to 16% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around 11% in 2010 to around 13% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 6% to the Trefis price estimate for Ford’s stock. In the past, Ford Car Market Share in North America has remained in the 8.5-11% range from 2005 to 2009.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Ford’s stock to Ford Car Market Share in North America.

2. Ford Truck Market Share in North America

The average of forecasts for Ford Truck Market Share in North America created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from 22% in 2010 to close to 25% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, whereas the baseline Trefis estimate is expected to be around 20% over the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 6% to the Trefis price estimate for Ford’s stock. In the past, Ford Truck Market Share in North America has been in the range of 16-19% from 2005 to 2009.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Ford’s stock to Ford Truck Market Share in North America.

Disclosure: No positions