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If I were Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) I'd be worried about Harrah's Entertainment Inc. (HET) and Station Casinos Inc. (STN) going private and being able to commit capital to projects I couldn't squeeze past shareholders in the quarterly reports. Private companies can make lavish bribes to Chinese officials and secure the best new spots!

I'm just waiting for someone to explain how this company is now worth $34B with $400M in earnings this year and $550M next year... Will they earn $1B in '08? That would still be a P/E of 34 vs a current P/E of 30 for MGM Mirage (MGM).

HET's current P/E is 42 (they are going private), but they took a huge hit last year and this year from the hurricanes and are projected for a P/E of 19 next year. Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) has Macau exposure and a P/E of 15 but they are new and only in the black for the first time last quarter (where they earned $700M in just that Q against a $9.4B market cap, even after today's 6% gain).

So I may be wrong about LVS today, but I feel pretty good that I will be right about them no later than the next earnings report.

Las Vegas 5 12 06

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Source: Las Vegas Sands: Dicey Valuation