I admit that I have a bias against commonly accepted views. I sort of feel that at that point, when everybody thinks alike, things start to be taken for granted and skepticism, "the chastity of the intellect" as Santayana called it, is forsaken. And that's when bad things happen to investors.
When fundamentals seems intractable or when sentiment sounds one sided, or both, it is good to look at the key pieces of the investment puzzle, one by one, and think about damage and odds. I don't try to catch every salmon, but rather I try to make sure that I catch some good ones with the least risk of drowning. Fear of missing out is less than fear of...
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