July Nonfarm Payrolls Estimate: -65k; Change in Private Payrolls Estimates: +90k

by: Bespoke Investment Group

Investors will be zoned in on the July jobs report set for release tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus economist estimate is for a loss of 65,000 nonfarm payrolls and a gain of 90,000 jobs in the private sector. The drop off of temporary census workers is why the overall number is expected to be negative. The private sector number will be the one that most investors will focus on. In June, the private sector added 83,000 jobs versus an estimate of 110,000. In May, the private sector added just 41,000 versus an estimate of 180,000.

Below is a table highlighting the nonfarm payrolls report going back to the start of the bear market in October 2007. As shown, the S&P 500 has been down on the day of the last three payroll reports. Prior to that, the index had gained on six straight report days.