Consumer Credit: Watch Those Revisions

Includes: AXP, BAC, C, COF, DFS, JPM, MA, V
by: Karl Denninger

Gee, you don't think they're playing with the numbers, do you?

Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-1/4 percent in the second quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9-1/2 percent, and nonrevolving credit was about unchanged. In June, consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3/4 percent, revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 6-1/2 percent, and nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2-1/2 percent.

Notice that there's no indication of the revisions here. Both Q1 and the first two months of Q2 numbers were revised.

Sigh.... distortions galore.

"Better than expected" eh? What did you expect? Non-revolving (autos, etc) are basically flat-lined at zero and revolving debt continues to decrease at a roughly 10% annualized rate.

Improvement? Where?

As you can see from the "outstanding" chart, there's no real change in the story here.

Non-revolving never went materially negative to start with, and revolving continues to contract at roughly the same rate as it has all year.

A big fat yawn from this guy - but heh, it was good for over 100 points on the DOW off the bottom!

PS: This is over a month in arrears as it is the June report......