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Motorola (MOT) competes with mobile phone makers like Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), and Nokia (NYSE:NOK). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $8.39 for Motorola’s stock, about 5% above the current market price of close to $8.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Motorola’s stock over the last week: (1) R&D as % of Gross Profit and (2) SG&A as % of Gross Profit. The members’ forecasts suggest R&D as % of Gross Profit will trend above while SG&A as % of Gross Profit will trend below the Trefis estimate. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 2% for Motorola’s stock.

Motorola’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) R&D as % of Gross Profit and (2) SG&A as % of Gross Profit. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

1. R&D as % of Gross Profit

The average of forecasts for R&D as % of Gross Profit created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from 43.5% in 2010 to around 31% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from about 44% in 2010 to 28% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a downside of 7% to the Trefis price estimate for Motorola’s stock. In the past, R&D as % of Gross Profit has increased from close to 31% in 2005 to around 47% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Motorola’s stock to R&D as % of Gross Profit.

2. SG&A as % of Gross Profit

The average of forecasts for SG&A as % of Gross Profit created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from around 46% in 2010 to 27% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from around 47% in 2010 to around 31% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 9% to the Trefis price estimate for Motorola’s stock. In the past, SG&A as % of Gross Profit has increased from 31% in 2005 to around 50% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Motorola’s stock to SG&A as % of Gross Profit.

Disclosure: No positions

Source: Higher R&D Expenses and Lower SG&A Expenses Expected for Motorola