Down on Fed Day Mornings

by: Bespoke Investment Group

The S&P 500 was down 1.22% at 10 AM ET this morning. We went back and found all of the days where the S&P 500 was down at least 50 basis points at 10 AM on Fed Days to see how the market has done from 10 AM to the close. (We only went back to 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the actual day of the meeting.)

As you'll see below, the S&P 500 has been down more than 0.50% at 10 AM on a Fed Day twelve times. Today's 1.22% decline at 10 AM was actually the fourth biggest in history. But there is still hope for the bulls. Looking at these twelve days, the S&P has actually averaged a gain of 1.14% from 10 AM to the close with positive returns 67% of the time. On the four Fed Days where the S&P was down more than a percent at 10 AM, the index actually went up more than a percent from 10 AM to the close three times for an average gain of 1.5%.