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AMD competes with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) in notebook processor market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $10 for AMD’s stock, about 33% above the current market price of $7.45.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of AMD’s stock over the last week: (1) AMD Notebook Processor Pricing and (2) AMD Notebook Processor Market Share. The members’ forecasts suggest that AMD Notebook Processor Pricing as well as Market Share will trend above the Trefis estimate. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 17% for AMD’s stock.

We estimate that Notebook Processors constitute around 23% of the $10 Trefis price estimate for AMD’s stock. Hence the stock is quite sensitive to (1) AMD Notebook Processor Pricing and (2) AMD Notebook Processor Market Share. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

1. AMD Notebook Processor Pricing

The average of forecasts created by Trefis members indicate that AMD Notebook Processor Pricing will remain close to $46 over the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from around $42 in 2010 to $33.50 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 13% to the Trefis price estimate for AMD’s stock. In the past, AMD Notebook Processor Pricing has decreased from $82.50 in 2003 to around $43 in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of AMD’s stock to AMD Notebook Processor Pricing.

Our complete analysis for AMD Notebook Processor Pricing is here.

2. AMD Notebook Processor Market Share

The average of forecasts for AMD Notebook Processor Market Share created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from around 21% in 2010 to 24.5% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. In comparison, Trefis expects the share to be around 21% over the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 4% to the Trefis price estimate for AMD’s stock. In the past, AMD Notebook Processor Market Share has increased from around 15% in 2003 to 19% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of AMD’s stock to AMD Notebook Processor Market Share.

Disclosure: None