In the post-WWII United States, the rate of inflation has a very clear tendency to fall whenever the unemployment rate rises above 7%:
When the unemployment rate has been above 8%, the average fall in the annual CPI inflation rate over the next two years has been 4.5 percentage points.
Our current annual inflation rate is about 1%:
Does this mean that two years from now we can expect our annual inflation rate to be -3.5%--that we can expect fairly rapid deflation? The odds are very low. Patterns that apply to times when prices have always been rising cannot be extrapolated to inflation rates below zero. Firms are very loathe to cut nominal wage rates, and if nominal wages do not fall then firms cannot on average cut prices by more than 2% per year or so without facing bankruptcy.
Does this mean that two years from now we can expect our annual wage inflation rate to still be between 0% and 2%? That is certainly the way to bet.