Oil Breaks 50- and 200-Day Moving Average in the Same Day

Includes: DBE, DBO, OIL, USL, USO
by: Bespoke Investment Group

First it was the Nasdaq on Wednesday, and now Thursday it was oil's turn to break below its 50 and 200 day moving averages on the same day. Since 1990, this is the 20th time oil has broken below both moving averages on the same day, so occurrences have been more frequent than with the Nasdaq.

Looking ahead at oil's performance following these occurrences, however, shows that as was the case with the Nasdaq, a break of both moving averages isn't the signal of impending doom that some technicians suggest it is. In the nineteen prior periods, oil has averaged a gain of 1.36% over the next week and a decline of 0.25% over the next month. Over each time frame, the commodity has seen gains 58% of the time.

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