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Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) competes with AMD and nVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) in the notebook and server processors market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $24.78 for Intel’s stock, about 25% above the current market price of around $20.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Intel’s stock over the last week: (1) Global Server Shipments and (2) Global Notebook Shipments. These forecasts suggest that Global Server Shipments as well as Global Notebook Shipments will trend roughly in line with Trefis estimates. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 2% for Intel’s stock.

We estimate that Notebook Processors constitutes around 46% of our Intel stock price estimate. In comparison, Server Processors account for 21%. Intel’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Global Server Shipments and (2) Global Notebook Shipments. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

1. Global Server Shipments

The average of forecasts for Global Server Shipments created by Trefis members indicate a projected increase from around 9 million in 2010 to 13.5 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period, in line with baseline Trefis estimates.

The member estimates imply a downside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Intel’s stock. In the past, Global Server Shipments grew from close to 6 million in 2003 to around 8 million in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Intel’s stock to Global Server Shipments.

Our complete analysis for Global Server Shipments is here.

2. Global Notebook Shipments

The average of forecasts for Global Notebook Shipments created by Trefis members indicate a projected increase from around 176 million in 2010 to 268 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. By contrast, Trefis analysts forecast an increase of around 172 million in 2010 to around 253 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

The member estimates imply an upside of 3% to the Trefis price estimate for Intel’s stock. In the past, Global Notebook Shipments increased from 35 million in 2003 to around 150 million in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Intel’s stock to Global Notebook Shipments.

Disclosure: No Positions

Source: Potential 2% Intel Upside From Rising Server and Notebook Shipments