Cramer's Mad Money - The Difference Between Overvalued Stocks And Bubbles (5/8/14)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday May 8.

The Difference Between Overvalued Stocks and Bubbles: Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR), Twitter (NYSE:TWTR). Other stocks discussed: Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD), Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN), WhiteWave (NYSE:WWAV)

How can the high-flyers get out of their current mess? The best way is to show earnings. There is plenty of talk about bubbles, but many stocks were thought to be "bubbles," but have gained tremendously. Some stocks with high-valuation can continue to go higher. Many stocks were considered to be "fads" like Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), but when Coca-Cola (KO) started a joint venture with the company, the shorts had to cover.

There were bubbles called in software-as-a-service companies, and while these stocks are down now, they climbed higher for a long time after the bears declared they were overvalued. Many of these hot IPOs got hit after lockup expiration, which is what happened to Twitter (TWTR). Are we in the dotcom era again? Cramer doesn't think so, because a lot of the "hot" stocks that are being hit can still see better days, unlike the worthless dotcoms of yesteryear. "Show profits or write your stock's obituary," said Cramer, but many of these stocks that have gotten hit could make profits if they weren't spending to grow. "Many of these companies were not bubbles, they were just overvalued."

Cramer took some calls:

LinkedIn (LNKD) was good, but missed the quarter a couple of times. It might go down enough that it may eventually get a bid, but it is hard to know when that will happen.

Tyson Foods (TSN) has rallied significantly. Cramer thinks it is time to exit the position. He would be in WhiteWave (WWAV).

The New Growth Sector: Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), Cimarex (NYSE:XEC), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Gulfport Energy (NASDAQ:GPOR). Other stocks mentioned: Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), BP (NYSE:BP), Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), Flotek (NYSE:FTK)

What constitutes growth in this market? Double-digit growth is a key to look for when buying a stock on the way down. Try to find stocks that show terrific earnings growth. The oil and gas stocks are showing this potential: Pioneer Energy (PXD), Cimarex (XEC) and EOG Resources (EOG) all have great earnings and production growth. Pioneer beat earnings with strong production at robust prices. Pioneer has 15% production growth, and longer term, it sees a rate of 16-20%. Cimarex is a play on the Permian basin. It grew production from 10-16% range to up to 20%. This will produce accelerated revenue growth long term. EOG reported 42% yoy production gains. The company produces oil at low cost. One of the biggest losers in the sector was Gulfport Energy (GPOR). It has assets in the volatile Utica shale. It lowered its production forecast by 30% and has too much exposure to natural gas.

Cramer took some calls:

Halliburton (HAL) is an amazing company that makes a lot of money. "Stay long Haliburton."

BP (BP) is a resilient company with a great dividend boost.

Petrobras (PBR) has a lot of oil assets that are not being drilled because of problems with the Brazilian government. Don't sell it, but don't buy it. A new government in Brazil might provide hope for PBR.

Flotek (FTK) is in the oil and chemical business and has overseas exposure. It is a good stock.

CEO Interview: Jim Hughes, First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR)

First Solar (FSLR) is a high-quality solar play and is the lowest cost commercial manufacturer of solar modules and a producer of solar solutions. It has a runway for long-term growth. FSLR beat earnings and raised its full year guidance. Its products are more efficient, cost less to produce than those of its peers, and its pipeline of projects is growing. The stock fell 6%, but FSLR has great long-term prospects and trades at only 14x earnings. Cramer sees FSLR as a value stock rather than a momentum-driven stock. The company has a gigantic backlog which gives investors visibility. "We remained profitable when many others in the solar industry were losing money," said CEO Jim Hughes. The price of solar has come down so much while competing fuels have come up in price, noted Hughes, and this has led to new opportunities. "We provide a compelling value proposition," said Hughes. "We have a cost advantage versus our silicon-based competitors."

CEO Interview: Irwin Simon, Hain Celestial (NASDAQ:HAIN). Other stock mentioned: Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFM), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)

Even though Whole Foods (WFM) had a rough quarter, that doesn't mean bad news for the entire sector. WFM got crushed from growing competition, which might be good news for Hain Celestial (HAIN) which provides natural and organic brands to these stores. Hain beat earnings by 2 cents with a record 22% growth in revenues. The stock jumped 3.3%. CEO Irwin Simon discussed record sales and opportunities for overseas expansion. The interest in natural and organic food is increasing dramatically, and Hain continues to be the leader, as stores like Wal-Mart (WMT) expand their offerings of organic products. While price is a concern, many consumers are willing to pay up for quality, healthy food. "Think long term," said Cramer, citing the healthy food trend as producing more upside for Hain.


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