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Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Nokia’s stock (NYSE:NOK) over the last week:

  1. Nokia Mobile Phone Market Share in Emerging Markets and
  2. Market Share in Developed Markets.

These forecasts suggest that Nokia’s Mobile Phone Market Share in Emerging Markets will trend above, while Market Share in Developed Markets will trend roughly in-line with the Trefis estimate.

Nokia competes with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) and Motorola (NYSE:MOT) in the mobile phones market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $12 for Nokia’s stock, about 37% above the current market price of around $9, and the Trefis member projections indicate a further combined upside of around 14% for Nokia’s stock compared to our price estimate.

We estimate that Emerging Markets Mobile Phones constitutes around 54% of the $12 Trefis price estimate for Nokia’s stock. In comparison, Developed Markets Mobile Phones account for 17%. Nokia’s stock is quite sensitive to

  1. Nokia Mobile Phone Market Share in Emerging Markets and
  2. Market Share in Developed Markets.

Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

1. Nokia Mobile Phone Market Share in Emerging Markets

The average of Trefis member forecasts for Nokia Mobile Phone Market Share in Emerging Markets indicates a decrease from around 45% in 2010 to around 43% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from around 40% in 2010 to 34% by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

The member estimates imply an upside of 13% to the Trefis price estimate for Nokia’s stock. In the past, Nokia’s Mobile Phone Market Share in Emerging Markets has increased from around 33% in 2003 to 40% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Nokia’s stock to Nokia Mobile Phone Market Share in Emerging Markets.

2. Market Share in Developed Markets

The average of Trefis member forecasts for Nokia’s Share in Developed Markets indicates a decrease from around 26% in 2010 to 21% by 2016, roughly in line with the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 26% in 2010 to close to 20% by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

The member estimates imply an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Nokia’s stock. In the past, Nokia’s Share in Developed Markets has decreased from close to 40% in 2003 to around 27% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Nokia’s stock to Nokia’s Share in Developed Markets.

Our complete analysis for Nokia’s stock is here.

Disclosure: No positions

Source: Can Nokia's Stock Look Up?