5 Global Dogs Chart 30% To 170% April Price Upsides

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 |  Includes: APSA, BBD, BCS.PD, BSMX, CIG, EC, ESV, FLY, GA, PVD, SID, VALE, VIV, VOD
by: Fredrik Arnold

Summary

8 top Global SML dividend dogs showed world class 1 yr. analyst mean target price upsides averaging 45.6% as of May 7. Two averaged 27.75% downside as bear bait.

Top ten Global SML & Dow dogs remained bullish since February.

Analysts project average 40% 1 yr. net gains for top 8 SML Global stocks come April 2015.

Consider these as starting points for your Global SML dog dividend stock purchase research for May.

Global dividend stock prices from Yahoo! Finance tallied as of market closing May 7 were compared with analyst mean target gains one year hence. The results showcased 8 stocks sporting 45.6% average price upsides. These included four basic materials firms, two telecoms, a service firm, and one financial firm.

This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any index and compared that index side by side with the Dow. Below, Arnold top dog selections for April were disclosed step by step. Five actionable conclusions were drawn.

Actionable Conclusion (1) 8 Global Dividend Dogs Pursued 3.24% to 169.9% Upsides for April While 2 Showed Downsides

The chart above used one year mean target prices set by brokerage analysts matched against May 7 closing price to compare ten Global index stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2015 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.

Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for these indices: Dow 30; S&P 500; Russell 2000 & 1000; S&P Aristocrats; NASDAQ 100; Champions; Challengers; Global. Two recent bonus reports were: Sindex, & SuSindex.

Thirty For the Money

Bargain stocks to buy and hold for at least one year as reported below were termed dogs because they were all selected based on Michael B. O'Higgins book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991). O' Higgins revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increased (and whose dividend yields therefore decreased) could be sold off once a year to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index, now named Dogs of the Dow. His system works to find bargains in any collection of dividend paying stocks. Utilizing analyst price upside estimates expanded the universe to include popular growth equities, if desired.

Dog Metrics Gauged Ten Top Global Stocks

Thirty small, mid, and large cap Global equities were culled by yield from over 274 common and preferred choices for this article. Small cap firms showed $300M to $2B; mid cap showed $2B to $10B; large showed over $10B in market capitalization.

Ten top global dividend stocks that showed the biggest dividend yields May 7 per Yahoo Finance data represented just flour of nine sectors: financial; utilities; services; basic materials.

The list was led by four of seven financial firms, Alto Palermo S.A. [Argentina] (NASDAQ:APSA) was tops. The other six financials placed second through fourth, sixth, ninth, and tenth: Santander Mexico Fincl Gp SAB deCV ADR [Mexico] (NYSE:BSMX); Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. [Chile] (NYSE:PVD); Barclays Bank Plc ADR (Sponsored) Pref Shs Ser 5 [U.K.] (BCS.PD); HSBC Holdings Plc ADR Ser A Rep 1/40 Pfd Ser A [U.K.] (HSEA); Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc ADR (Sponsored) Ser F Repr Pref Shs Ser F [U.K.] (RBS-PM); Banco Bradesco S.A [Brazil] (NYSE:BBD).

A lone utility sector dog, Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais (NYSE:CIG) placed fifth. A single services firm, Fly Leasing Ltd. (NYSE:FLY) was seventh. Finally, the lone basic materials firm, Ecopetrol SA ADR [Colombia] (NYSE:EC) placed eighth to complete the top ten global dogs by yield.

Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs

Relative strengths of the top ten Global dogs by yield as of market close 5/7/2014 compared to those of the Dow are shown in the graphs and charts below. Projected annual dividend history from $10.000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in blue for dividend and green for price.

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Actionable Conclusion (2): Global & Dow Dogs Continued Their Bull Chase

Global dividend payers as of May 7 displayed plummeting dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top ten stocks while their aggregate single share price inclined to signal a bullish turn. Dividend fell at a rate of 17% after March while total single share price moved up 9% for that period. The change was mostly attributable to higher price stocks with lower dividends making the top ten.

Joy imbued the Dow dogs as projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten fell 2% since March. Aggregate single share price increased 3% to confirm the bullish sign. The Dow dogs overbought condition grew as aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten. The overhang was $145 or 38% for January, then retreated to $125 or 33% in February, swelled to $149 or 40% in March, expanded more to $173 or 47% in April. All of this recent joy on the Dow was triggered by across the board price improvement propelling dividend yields lower.

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high yield "dog" metric, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.

Actionable Conclusion (3): Wall St. Wizard Wisdom Wrangled 21.33% 1 yr. Net Gain from Top 20 Global Dogs

Top 20 dogs on the Global stock list were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of May 7, 2014 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2015.

A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $20,000 invested as $1k in each of the highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2014. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2015 data points green for price and blue for dividend.

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Yahoo projected a 5% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase by over 10% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock price movement opposite of market direction.

Actionable Conclusion (4): Analysts Forecast 8 Global DiviDogs Net 7% to 173.8% Come 2015

Three of the eight top dividend yielding global dogs were verified as being among the eight gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for this collection as graded by Wall St. wizards was 37.5% accurate.

Probable profit generating trades were revealed by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance into 2015:

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (NYSE:SID) netted $1737.95, based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 98% greater than the market as a whole.

Vodafone Group (NASDAQ:VOD) netted $755.62 based on estimates from four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 34% less than the market as a whole.

Compania Vale Do Rio (NYSE:VALE) netted $424.58 based on estimates from two analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% greater than the market as a whole.

Fly Leasing Ltd. netted $385.09 based on estimates from five analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 26% less than the market as a whole.

Santander Mexico Fincl Gp SAB deCV netted $368.01 based on estimates from five analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 88% less than the market as a whole.

Ecopetrol SA netted $184.02 based on estimates from thirteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% less than the market as a whole.

Telefonica Brasil SA (NYSE:VIV) netted $83.32, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from nine analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 11% less than the market as a whole.

Ensco plc (NYSE:ESV) netted $70.68 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from thirty analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 66% more than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was 50.1% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these eight Global dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 2% more than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (5): (Bear Alert) Analysts Forecast CIG & GA DiviDogs to Post Net Losses of 28.36% & 17.9% By April 2015

Two probable losing traded revealed by analysts reported by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance for 2015 were:

Companhia Energetica was projected to lose $283.59 based on dividend and a mean target price estimate from two analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% more than the market as a whole.

Giant Interactive Group (NYSE:GA) was projected to lose $179.42 based on dividend and a mean target price estimate from four analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 117% more than the market as a whole.

Average net loss in dividend and price including $20 in broker fees was 23.15% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these two Global dogs. This loss estimate was subject to average volatility 78% more than the market as a whole.

Net gain and loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your Global dog dividend stock purchase/sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by R&R, LLC from data derived from www.dividend.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance.

Disclosure: I am long CSCO, CVX, GE, INTC, MCD, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.