Mac Desktop Market Share and Pricing Important for Apple

Aug.18.10 | About: Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock over the last week: (1) Mac Desktops Market Share and (2) Mac Desktop Pricing. These forecasts suggest that Mac Desktops Market Share as well as Mac Desktop Pricing will trend roughly in-line with the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.

Apple competes with other PC makers like Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) and HP (NYSE:HPQ). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $337 for Apple’s stock, about 33% above the current market price of $254.

Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers: (1) Mac Desktops Market Share and (2) Mac Desktop Pricing.

1. Mac Desktops Market Share

The average of Trefis member forecasts for Mac Desktops Market Share indicate an increase from around 3% in 2010 to 7% by 2016, in-line with the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 3% in 2010 to 6.5% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a small upside to the Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock. In the past, Mac Desktops Market Share has increased from around 2% in 2005 to close to 3% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Apple’s stock to Mac Desktops Market Share.

Our complete analysis for Mac Desktops Market Share is here.

2. Mac Desktop Pricing

The average of forecasts for Mac Desktop Pricing created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from around $1,225 in 2010 to $685 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from $1,213 in 2010 to $645 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a small upside to the Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock. In the past, Mac Desktop Pricing has increased from $1,305 in 2005 to $1,348 in 2009.

Disclosure: No positions