The market has held up but many recent deals were priced below their filing ranges. Some, like RealPage (RP) (online rental property management), priced below the range and then traded up very strongly immediately following pricing. We did see some some notable movement in a few names. Fabrinet (FN) (optical networking components) moved up 59% in the past two weeks following favorable analyst coverage. The other positive standout so far is Qlik (QLIK) (business intelligence software), which is up 43% from the IPO. OpenTable (OPEN) continues to move higher without interruption and added another 17% in the past two weeks. The shares are now up 163% from the IPO and trade at 15x sales.
On the flip side, SMART Technologies (SMT) (interactive whiteboards) is down 17% in the past two weeks and 25% during their first month as a public company. We completed some analysis and IV estimates for RealPage and IntraLinks (IL) and both are trading above those valuation estimates right now. We note that CBOE (financial instrument trading) has dropped considerably from levels that were close to our IV estimate and now offer fairly attractive upside.
There is not much left on the active IPO calendar now that we are in the depths of August. SurgiVision (SRGV) appears to still be alive but we don’t know if the deal can get done given the early stage of the company’s business. There were some new filings that made our list, including SiGe Semiconductor (SIGE), Demand Media (DMMD), SemiLEDs (LEDS) and Skype (SKP). Skype will no doubt be a major focus for the market after summer vacations end and investors return to looking for new ideas and strong year-end performance.
In the next two weeks the investment banks will be initiating coverage of SMART, RealD, Qlik, Camelot Information Systems (CIS), Ameresco (AMRC) and Green Dot (GDOT). Analysts may have a hard time justifying buy ratings on names like Qlik and Green Dot given their strong recent price performance. Upcoming coverage may help SMART move up after their sharp post-IPO decline.
During the month of August we also started to meet with company management of some recently-public companies like ReachLocal (RLOC), Digital Globe, Constant Contact (CTCT), Planet Payments, SPS Commerce (SPSC) and LogMeIn (LOGM). We expect to do some further work on most of these names and publish our findings and IV estimates. We also met with emerging private companies that may be in a position to tap equity markets, including Angie’s List, Beyond the Rack and Glam Media. We were particularly impressed with the maturity and business model of Angie’s List. In our view, they appear to have reached a level that can support a public market debut.