Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday May 12.
The momentum meltdown hasn't spread to the rest of the market, because investors are putting money into safer stocks. However, Monday saw a resurgence in the momentum names. Cramer looked at two stocks that illustrate the mood of the market.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is a fast-growing stock which had impressive same store sales. The stock rose fast last year until this March, when growth stocks got hit. McDonald's (MCD) is not growing quickly, but has a 3.15% yield, unlike CMG, which has no yield. MCD rose just 10% last year, but recently, MCD has gained 8% without any good news from the company. MCD's yield is higher than the 10-year Treasury, which is around 2.6%. CMG reported a strong quarter, but the stock dropped 6%. It posted a phenomenal 13% gain in same store sales, but it missed earnings estimates, because it is investing in the company and is getting hit by commodity costs. CMG is trading at a rich multiple of 40, but could be a buy when it trades at 35. MCD has moved higher on miniscule same-store sales growth, is trading higher on its dividend, buyback and available cash.
Cramer took some calls:
Sonic (SONC) keeps going up, but is still cheap enough to buy.
On a day the Dow rose 112 points and the Nasdaq performed well, rising 1.77% after a period of underperformance caused by the sell-off of "hot" tech stocks, Cramer thinks analogies between now and the dotcom era are not accurate. The dotcom stocks of yesteryear were based on eyeballs and concepts and had no real earnings, whereas new cloud plays at least have the potential to be profitable. Most are cash flow positive, but are spending on investing in their businesses rather than boosting earnings. One thing the recent action has in common with 2000-2001 is that the money is moving from tech stocks to defensive companies.
When Salesforce.com (CRM) and Amazon (AMZN) stumbled, that spelled the end of the recent hot tech stock bubble, and it is hard to know, currently, how to value these companies. The street wants earnings and a tangible valuation. Shutterstock (SSTK) is growing at 40%, but the market doesn't care right now. The stock has had a huge decline, but it still trades at 67 times earnings with no dividend or buyback. That is the reason quality high-fliers are being sold off. Biotechs, ecommerce and security plays are likely to continue to go lower. Google (GOOG), (GOOGL) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) are both selling at unreasonable discounts, and could be bought on the decline. The bubble in high-flyers has been burst, but it is still hard to know what they are worth. Cramer would sell these formerly hot stocks on any bounce.
Cramer took some calls:
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has "burned" Cramer so many times; "I am not going to recommend the stock."
Hotel stocks are in a stealth bull market, because there are few hotels being built and bookings continue to grow. The key metric in the hotel sector, RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room), is accelerating in the U.S., which is good news for the industry. Which hotel stock is the one to own?
Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT) manages 1,200 hotels under several high-profile brands, and has pioneered the business model of running hotels without owning the property. This is the best way for a hotel to grow rapidly. HOT gets half of its revenues from overseas, which might be a disadvantage given weakness in China, but Cramer thinks HOT may transcend this issue. HOT issued one special dividend, which gives it a 5% yield, and plans several others. The cessation of the buyback may be one reason the stock hasn't gone higher, but Cramer thinks it will be re-instituted. It trades at a rich multiple of 28, but it has great management and a clean balance sheet. HOT is Cramer's favorite hotel stock. If it starts buying back stock, HOT could rise 10 points, "in a heartbeat."
Hilton (HLT) is the largest lodging company, with 4,100 hotels and timeshares. It was taken private, but went public again last December. It has the largest development pipeline, mainly financed by third-party investors. It is moving toward a licensing and fee-based model. Hilton has an improving balance sheet, which was once a headwind for Hilton. It reported great numbers, including a 6% increase in RevPar, but the stock didn't rise. Hilton is Cramer's second favorite hotel stock.
Marriott (MAR) is a fabulous operator, but there isn't much room to improve, and that is the reason it is Cramer's third pick rather than his second choice. It has had a huge move, up 20% for 2014, and is well-run. It beat estimates, raised guidance and has a huge buyback of around 4.6% of its market cap. MAR is a better company than Hilton, but the stock has risen significantly, so it is worth waiting for a pullback.
Hyatt (H) reported a decent quarter. It doesn't have a huge buyback, and trades at 53 times earnings. Cramer doesn't recommend Hyatt.
The price of gold got "obliterated" in 2013 after rising steadily for a decade. Cramer still thinks gold is like "insurance for a portfolio." His favorite pick has been the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), but one gold miner has been posting consistently strong numbers: Randgold (GOLD). Randgold is up 24% because of dramatic production increase, up 43% yoy. CEO Mark Bristow discussed the company's mine in the Congo that allows GOLD to produce large amounts of gold at low cost. "If you want to own a gold stock, own this one," said Cramer.
Hurrah For Pinnacle Foods (NYSE:PF)
In an era of IPO fever, Pinnacle Foods (PF) is the antidote. It came public last year at $20 and rallied 11% on the first day. It once had debt problems, but has cleaned up its balance sheet. The company offered a dividend of 3% and is expanding its healthy food options. The company made the accretive acquisition of Wishbone, a salad dressing brand. However, the company then sold it at a higher price, and the stock rallied 14%. Cramer praised Pinnacle Foods for its spectacular 15-month run.
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