On July 29th, I said After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play. RIM (RIMM) came out with the new Blackberry Torch and OS 6, but I remained unconvinced, and blogged RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?. After some due diligence, I released a full forensic report for my subscribers, Many More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion wherein I promised to give professional and institutional subscribers access to a plug-and-play Research in Motion “specific” valuation model that they can use to layer their own market share, penetration, growth and margin assumptions to use our proprietary, internal analytics to produce their own custom valuations. To assist those who don’t follow the industry closely, I have also made available an interactive Smartphone Market Model that was built using data from Gartner, Neilson, and Canalys, among other sources.
Before I go on I want to bring to the attention of all how the market is now starting to realize what I have been claiming in my blog, and that is that Research in Motion is flirting with becoming the next Palm (PALM), and failing in the market. RIM has fallen farther than its competing handset vendors (both in market share and equity share price) who use Android, iOS and Symbian, and has also underperformed the broad market, and by a very material margin. OTM option prices have jumped significantly, rewarding those who followed the lead on BoomBustBlog.
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The following are subscriber downloads and illustrations. Please click here to subscribe or to upgrade your subscription.
RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Professional & Institutional: a 45 page analysis of RIMM, its strengths, weaknesses and prospects and probably the most thorough valuation that I know of concerning this company.
- RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Retail: a 10 page abridged version for my retail clients, containing all that you need to know including the market scenario valuation analysis (see Many More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion for more information).
Smartphone Market Model – Blog Download Version: the interactive smart phone market analysis and penetration model, includes data for HTC, Apple (AAPL), Nokia (NOK) and Research in Motion.
- RIMM Multivariate Valuation Mode: the big Kahuna, for professional and institutional subscribers only. Please review the following overview of the model.
The model is written in Excel 2007 and is an abbreviated version of the model that we built for RIMM in house. It has 9 tabs, all of which are listed below except for the first tab which is my contact information. Upon opening the model, you should click the “Assumptions” tab and populate the green cells with the red fonts with the assumptions of your choice. Feel free to use data and trends from our Smart Phone Market Model to ensure you have the benefit of the clearly delineated historical and rcurrent trends.
RIM Model Assumptions 
RIM Model Factors Driving Growth
After populating the assumptions tab, jump to the “Factors Driving Growth” tab and choose the player whose market share and penetration data you want to populate the valuation model for the sake of comparison. The choices are “Nokia”, “RIMM”, “Apple”, “HTC” and “Others”. This tab is annual data only.
RIM Model Quarterly Factors (driving growth)
On the next tab, you can do the same as the previous (this tab is quarterly growth). Each of the growth tabs has charts that are print and presentation quality. Just be sure to tell everyone where you got thesis, data and analysis from.
Other tabs in the model:
RIM Model Income Statement
RIM Model Device Market Analysis
RIM Model Revenue Analysis
RIM Model Device Revenues
Valuation and Multivariate Scenario Output
Final output is RIMM’s valuation using our analytics and your assumptions as input in the assumption tab above, as well as a multivariate scenario analysis showing changes in quite a number of variables (assuming all others remain the same) and their effects on your base valuation, as well as the percentage upside/downside from the current price.
More on the Creatively Destructive Pace of Technology Innovation and the Paradigm Shift known as the Mobile Computing Wars!
- There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All
- The Mobile Computing and Content Wars: Part 2, the Google Response to the Paradigm Shift
- An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught
- Don’t Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet
- This article should drive the point home: An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Opportunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses
- A First in the Mainstream Media: Apple’s Flagship Product Loses In a Comparison Review to HTC’s Google-Powered Phone
- After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play
- RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?
- Android is gaining preference as the long-term choice of application developers
- A Glimpse of the BoomBustBlog Internal Discussion Concerning the Fate of Apple
- Math and the Pace of Smart Phone Innovation May Take a Byte Out of Apple’s (Short-lived?) Dominance
- Apple on the Margin
- RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?
- Motorola, the Company That INVENTED the Cellphone is Trying to Uninvent the iPad With Android
- Android Now Outselling iOS? Explaining the Game of Chess That Google Plays in the Smart Phone Space
- There Goes Those Fancy eBook Aspirations from Apple, Barnes and Noble, and Amazon: 100,000’s of FREE eBooks from the Public Library
- How Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue
- Empirical Evidence of Android Eating Apple, Literally!
- More of the Android Onslaught: Increasing Handset Revenues and Growth
- Many More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion
Disclosure: short RIMM
