The 2010 2nd quarter earnings season has wound down, so it's a good time to do a comparison with the 1st quarter. I always say that earnings are ancient history, so I focus on forward guidance. Unfortunately, only 40% of companies provide guidance; nevertheless, I would contend that 40% is enough to get a good picture of where the market might be heading.
The two charts below compare Q2 to Q1. The percentages displayed are based on the total number of stocks in a sector that provided guidance. This first chart, for example, looks at how many stocks offered upside guidance as a percentage of stocks in a sector that provided guidance. (Click to enlarge)
Not shown are the charts for mixed guidance and inline guidance. They are almost exactly like the chart above, in that there was very little change from Q1 to Q2.
There has been an increase in the amount of downside guidance in Q2 compared to Q1, but that increase is not that drastic. All told, in Q2, 12% of the companies offering guidance provided downside guidance, compared to 9% in Q1. Once again, the Financials take their place at the bottom of the barrel.They were noticeably bad in Q1 and even worse in Q2. If there's a double dip happening, it looks like it's going to be in the financial sector.
Based on forward guidance provided by company management during the Q2 earnings season, it seems the economy is expected to continue to muddle along. The majority of companies are expecting mixed or inline results, nearly a quarter of companies are expecting improved results and only 12% are expecting results to worsen.
This may not be sufficient to guarantee an economic resurgence but it sure doesn't seem to confirm the most dire, double dip projections of the bears.