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Slower growth in merchandise listings and average selling price (ASP) of merchandise on eBay could result in a potential downside of 7% for eBay’s (NASDAQ:EBAY) stock. eBay Marketplaces, consisting of online commerce enabled through eBay.com, Half.com, Rent.com, Shopping.com, and other eBay classifieds websites, accounts for close to 50% of the stock price.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of eBay’s stock over the last week: (1) Number of Merchandise Listings on eBay and (2) ASP of Merchandise on eBay. The member forecasts suggest that both drivers will trend slightly below the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.

eBay competes with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) in the online commerce business. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $30 for eBay’s stock, about 27% above the current market price of $23.

eBay’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Number of Merchandise Listings on eBay and (2) Average Selling Price of Merchandise on eBay. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

1. Number of Merchandise Listings on eBay

The average of Trefis member forecasts for Number of Merchandise Listings on eBay indicate an increase from 3 billion in 2010 to 4.3 billion by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 3.1 billion in 2010 to 4.5 billion by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a downside of 2% to the Trefis price estimate for eBay’s stock. In the past, Number of Merchandise Listings on eBay has increased from 1 billion in 2003 to around 3 billion in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of eBay’s stock to Number of Merchandise Listings on eBay.

Our complete analysis for Number of Merchandise Listings on eBay is here.

2. Average Selling Price of Merchandise on eBay

The average of forecasts for Average Selling Price of Merchandise on eBay created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from around $48 in 2010 to $53.50 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around $50 in 2010 to $60 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a downside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate for eBay’s stock. In the past, Average Selling Price of Merchandise on eBay has decreased from around $61 in 2003 to $51 in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of eBay’s stock to Average Selling Price of Merchandise on eBay.

Disclosure: No positions

Source: Slower Listing and Pricing Growth Could Erode eBay’s Stock by 7%