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Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU)

JP Morgan Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

May 21 2014 10:40 AM ET

Executives

Ivan Donaldson, Director - IR

Analysts

Harlan Sur - JP Morgan

Harlan Sur

Good morning. My name is Harlan Sur, Semiconductor and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Analyst here at JP Morgan. Very please to have Ivan Donaldson, Director of Investor Relations at Micron here with us today. I would ask Ivan to do is to provide us with a brief overview of Micron. Also provide us with an update on sort of current fundamentals in the memory market. After Ivan's remarks, I will kick it off with the first few questions and then I am sure we will have enough time for audience participation as well. So with that Ivan, thank you very much joining us this morning.

Ivan Donaldson

Thanks, Harlan. I appreciate it. Yes, so just a quick overview I guess for those who new that are not necessarily familiar with all of our businesses. About 70% of our revenue today is DRAM, most of the rest is NAND. We've got a pretty diversified model in terms of the in segments that we participate in. In DRAM it is about 40% PC, 30% mobile, about mid teen server and the mobile and server piece is the fastest growing part of the business as we look forward. On the DRAM side, if you look at our NAND business about 45% is related to the solid state drive market. Both selling Micron branded SSDs and also selling components to third party manufactures of SSDs. Clearly the focus for us is growing our own SSD business which I am sure we'll get into later. We got around 40% of our NAND otherwise is in some sort of card or component form and that's the piece of the business we want to frankly reduce as we move forward and build more system level solutions there.

If you looked at the current environment just real quick, the DRAM market remains very tight. We think the supply demand balance is in good shape probably little bit undersupply today as you have seen with prices coming up here recently some for the PC market in particular. Mobile is generally pretty stable. And if I looked at the NAND market, coming into balance we saw some over supply first half of the year and price reductions. Prices have essentially stabilized. We think the outlook for demand and the market situation in the second half of the year looks favorable. And again we are seeing generally positive trends in the NAND business as well.

Question-and-Answer Session

Harlan Sur

Great, thanks for that. So let me just sort of start off with the question on the NAND business because I think there was a lot of questions as Micron went through the DRAM to NAND conversion about -- what was the rationale for that? It was coming at a time where we are heading into seasonally weaker part of the market. And so lot of questions sort of the rationale for doing this. But another way I think about it is, you got some Tier 1 smartphone customers ramping new major platforms in the second half of the year. Obviously, the SSD business tends to be seasonally stronger in the second half of the year. And given the qualification, given your customers lead times in mobile and SSD production lead times, the conversion had to be sort of done, sort of six to nine months in advance in anticipation of all of these kinds of product cycle drivers in the second half of the year. Is that kind of the right way to we should think about it?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes. If you go back to the decision to convert DRAM to NAND, there is lot of factors that played into that. No questions. I mean overall wanting to rebalance the portfolio, given basically going to double our DRAM size with the acquisition of Elpida so we felt like structurally we needed to again rebalance a little bit, benefits the DRAM market at the same time giving us some growth in NAND we felt like we did need. And you are absolutely correct, Harlan, I mean the timing is such that you need to get the fab converted and qualified well in advance of when you are planning to start to ship some of these higher value applications. And that's where we are timing wise. The last couple of quarters we've certainly seen some choppiness in the business as we have seen large volume of conversion. A lot of big growth and some choppiness in pricing frankly as a result to some of that, not the optimize mix of the business we want to have long term. But that's where we were headed is, getting those products qualified and we are a very far long in that process now. Essentially going forward we're going to see a sizeable increase in the mix of our solid state drive business including product coming out of that converted fab in Singapore.

Harlan Sur

Great. And then as it relates to on the DRAM side, so I think in your prepared remarks you said 15% exposure to PC right now or what that portion like?

Ivan Donaldson

Well, in DRAM it is about 40%. Just for DRAM business

Harlan Sur

Okay, great. So the team has done a good job of converting a quite a bit of the Inotera capacity over specialty DRAM, how should we think about the PC DRAM exposure over the next few quarters especially as you mentioned in your prepared remarks, supply and demand remains relatively healthy such that does Micron have the ability to sort of pick and choose sort of the high value added per bit segments of the market that they want to focus on? Does that potentially mean that PC exposure goes down over the next few quarters?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes. It is a good question. If you go back a quarter or two PC was actually a little bit smaller. Shortly after we closed down on the Elpida transaction, mobile was more like 35 plus percent and PC was a little bit under that. So we've seen actually PC go up here a little bit in the short term that's been opportunistic really more than anything. You have seen the PC market has been under supplied; the margins have been a little better there compared to some of the mobile DRAM anyway. And so we have again been somewhat opportunistic there. I think if you take the longer view, no question that PC will get smaller. I mean if you just look at the growth rates, the mobile market is growing 50%-60% a year in terms of DRAM demand. The server market is growing in excess of 40% a year. So those are the two categories that I see our capacity continuing to shift towards and away from PC. But again within a particular quarter, it's just going to depend on where we would find the best home for our product.

Harlan Sur

Got it. The thing that I like about Micron and given the company's transformation into significant scale right that you have acquired over the past 24 months is the company is sort of focused now on targeting kind of systems levels solution right. Whether that be SSD, whether that be Enterprise SSD, whether that be module based solutions for your Flash based business. One other segment I think that represents significant opportunity for the Micron team is the Enterprise Flash SSD segment of the market. It is $4 billion market. It is growing 20% to 30% revenues per year for the next three years, 70% big consumption growth for the next three years. So talk to us about Micron's strategy in Enterprise and also if you could may be articulate what percentage of the mix is Enterprise SSD as the percent of your total business?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes, sure. Well, look no question that is probably the biggest focus within our NAND group today is growing a large and viable enterprise offering. It is less than 5% of our NAND business today. So it is pretty small for us. But is a massive opportunity as you said. If you look at the market size and it is not only the size and the growth but it tends to be premium margin business as well.

Harlan Sur

Absolutely

Ivan Donaldson

And make sense because that's what we are delivering performance based systems not just cost per bit driven solutions if you will. And the way we are going to get there if you will, we actually have built a pretty good product portfolio mostly PCIe and SATA, we've got a little bit of SAS that we are ramping now. Very high performance PCIe products in particular which is of course the higher end of the market. The SATA drive tends to be kind of the lower end of the enterprise space but still a very attractive market as well. We have the highest performance PCIe drive in the market today. But our SAS has been little bit limited just in terms of the timing of when we launched the products in the market. We have been planning to catch up with the incumbence that is already sort of entrenched with lot of those segments. But there is a major focus, our new Vice President of our Storage Solutions Group, Darren Thomas who came over from Dell, he is very, very focused on the enterprise opportunity and continuing to build the product portfolio which means again more PCIe solution adding some SAS to the line of which we have already started to do. And then again getting our product launches well timed with our customers' build cycles. And so we can be an early Tier 1 supplier to those key customers which include of course server OEMs, storage OEMs but in particular lot of growth coming from the direct buyer market if you will. The datacenter web2.0 type of customers, where clearly there is a big opportunity for us. A big part of this is well is of course being able to marry our NAND silicon to our internally developed controllers and firmware which is another big area of investments and resource allocation for Micron right now. We recently sort of reestablished or reshuffled our business unit structure to align to this goal. Again, we changed -- it is a branding issue but I think it shows the strategic focus. Our NAND solution group is now called our storage solutions group. So that's for a reason. We are not just focused on selling NAND components. We want to sell solutions. And in addition to that we now have a third pillar to our engineering groups which includes the controller development team. So it is DRAM, non volatile memory which is sort of the core historical investment for us from a technology perspective but we wired in new pillar of controller development. So that I think illustrates the importance that we are putting on developing these products.

Harlan Sur

Got it. And there seems to be an emerging segment within the Enterprise NAND market, segment called in memory solutions right. It is DIMM, a NAND Flash memory and putting it on the same memory bus that the DRAM sits on right. And that's about as close as you can get and about as good a performance that you can get from NAND Flash because it sits so close to the processor so obviously with your leadership in DRAM and you are obviously familiarity with DIMM based solutions, tell us what Micron is doing there to potentially take advantage of these types of solutions?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes. There are a variety of ways to attack this and like you said I think the good thing for Micron is we have a full portfolio, been able to do both DRAM and NAND so we can be somewhat agnostic to how customers want to approach that. And I think that's one of the nice things from a flexibility standpoint that we have. Again, there are always stray dots, it is impossible to get the same speed that you have on the DRAM side of things with NAND. But NAND of course has non volatile nature and can do some very good things as well. So I think there is interesting ways to do both. Whether -- in a lot of server applications today frankly most of the DIMM slots are maxed out and that's part of the story in DRAM is the content growth on the server side. We are doing a couple of things that are fairly unique with non volatile DIMM solutions which is a DRAM based solution that we can build in some non volatility. So get the ultra high performance capability from a speed perspective but still be able to store some data permanently. We will also certainly look at some of the NAND based solutions. Again there is stray dots of speed versus data storage et cetera but then you layer on the other things we are doing in the enterprise space, whether it is PCIe, SSD as well where you are getting a lot of the catching and speed capability that you can't get with a more of SATA driver traditional, obviously traditional hard driver.

Harlan Sur

Okay, Client SSD, the team is really built a strong franchise in Client SSD targeted to get pretty big part of the mix here in Q3 on a go forward basis. It is a competitive market but bit consumption growth is targeted to be on the order of 50% to 60% per year kind of on a go forward basis. Because of the competitive nature of this market, TLC cost is very important; TLC is a way kind of drives a better cost profile. So how should we think about the 16 nanometer TLC mix and when that's start to show up in your Client SSD product portfolio? I know that you are targeting Q4 of this year to see some 16 nanometer TLC but is it SSD more of kind of 2015, 2016 type of event.

Ivan Donaldson

Yes. So first of all I agree with you the Client SSD market is where you are going to drive a lot of volume. And of course we certainly would rather be selling a fully completed SSD type of system works its component so we are making that push very rapidly. Mostly based on 20 nanometer MLC as we looked into the next two quarters. So our client rather primarily in that kind of category which is still a good cost reduction from where we have been. Starting some 16 nanometer MLC stuff as well. To your question on TLC, first of all we are aggressively moving towards some TLC based solutions across the portfolio over the next year plus. And as you said correctly we are launching our first product on 16 nanometer TLC this summer. But those are going to be in more cards and some of the lower hanging fruit embedded segment initially followed by SSD. So I totally agree, no question you will see three bit, making a push into client but it is probably a fiscal 2015 story for us. But it is a focus and that's been one of the things that where I think you see little bit of change of course from Micron where we have been very heavy on the MLC focus historically. We see the need to layer in a low cost TLC piece of portfolio going forward whether it's cards or Client SSD as well.

Harlan Sur

As it relates to -- and this will be my last question kind of on the systems focus but the mobile market obviously has been a nice growth area for the Micron team. And more importantly the smartphone segment of the market where we haven't seen Micron as pervasive let say in some of the Tier 1 smartphone paradigm is with EMCP and eMMC module solution for smartphones and tablets. Now that you got the mobile DRAM leadership, you got a great NAND product portfolio, how is your team planning to sort of accelerate into the mobile device market with competitive EMLC and eMMC solutions?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes. It is a great question. And no doubt that's one of the key opportunities with the NAND because as you said we have a big position in mobile DRAM and the smartphone market, a broad customer base there, really though the mobile DRAM business we inherited from Elpida, of course they didn't have the NAND based solution. So that's where we are going now is the marriage of the two and bringing the Micron NAND with if you will ex Elpida mobile based platform that we had. So it is a big opportunity going forward. We have one significant design wins especially on the EMCP market in China. I think you will see some increase in that business for us relatively quickly. The next layer is eMMC NAND in the mobile space. And that's clearly a big focus within our wireless group as well as the way for us to layering some growth of mass storage mobile NAND Flash.

Harlan Sur

So can you maybe give us a sense in -- are EMCP and eMMC, are those accounted for in your embedded group or they accounted from your wireless group?

Ivan Donaldson

That will be in our wireless group.

Harlan Sur

Okay so WSG

Ivan Donaldson

Yes.

Harlan Sur

Okay, so can you may be give us a rough sense of how big the smartphone module market is for Micron right now?

Ivan Donaldson

For us it's about 10% of our NAND business -- of the NAND business, yes, so it's relatively small. And that's again why it is a pretty big opportunity

Harlan Sur

The good news is you have a lot of headroom for growth.

Ivan Donaldson

No question, no question.

Harlan Sur

Any questions from the audience.

Unidentified Participant

When you look at the NAND growth in the back half, how much of that is attributable to this increase in bit shipments because of SSD makeshift towards TLC and what do you think the home for most of that NAND is?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes. I do think that the biggest piece of the growth in the second half of the calendar year is SSDs but it is importantly penetration rate but also density increases. We've seen -- that's a good category in example of NAND is still fairly price elastic. So as we see -- you have seen prices come down first half of the year. I think we will see acceleration in demand in the second half for higher density drive as well as penetration rate is going up in notebook devices in particular. So a lot of that is still actually a combination of two bit and three bit based NAND drive. I think you will see some of both. Most of the market is still two bit on SSDs but on the three bit per sale stuff, you are going to see that continue to grow in the cards and some of the embedded segments as well. So it is a combination.

Unidentified Participant

So you still get the higher penetration at current pricing.

Ivan Donaldson

Yes. I think we can get higher penetration at current pricing. So not that we need to go down further from here. I think it is just a reflection of prices coming down already in calendar -- through calendar Q2.

Unidentified Participant

[Question inaudible]

Ivan Donaldson

Yes. On the controller side I think the opportunity is huge and it is hard for me to put a number on it because it is going to be all part of the solutions we sell that includes a controller. We are not obviously building a business to sell controller component, we are building so that we can sell a complete solution whether it is an enterprise based SSD, eventually even some of the more client higher volume SSDs with their own controllers. And it also starts to play with some of the DRAM solutions we are building. We've got the Hybrid Memory Cube product which is a very high performance DRAM solution with a logic component, advanced packaging through -silicon via technology. That requires some level of controller developing going forward as well. So it is -- again almost anything you build going forward there is a system type of product in the memory space is going to require some level of controller expertise. Now, you can still buy some of those things off the shelf, you can work with third parties to do some of that. But there is no question a larger percentage going forward is going to have to internally.

Harlan Sur

We have a question over here.

Unidentified Participant

[Question inaudible]

Ivan Donaldson

So the question is on the Enterprise SSD side, what is the IP coming from? And we don't feel like there is a requirement to use other people's IP or to go out and acquire things to do it. We have so far done that all in house and it's been all of our own IP. We've bought some things from suppliers and we work with some suppliers on various components. But that's really not an IP issue. So we feel very confident we can build that business organically and use our own IP to do it and don't see that it has been an issue. Now that doesn't mean that you couldn't decide to go buy something or work with someone externally to get there. But thus far we've really focused organically.

Unidentified Participant

[Question inaudible]

Ivan Donaldson

Well, our focus really is to build Micron branded SSDs. I mean that's clearly where -- what the end goal is. That doesn't mean that we won't consider may be selling NAND or working or some solutions with a third party and may be trying to build an Enterprise SSD, but that's probably going to get smaller not bigger. That's a percent of business.

Unidentified Participant

[Question inaudible]

Ivan Donaldson

Yes, well we think the supply environment in DRAM is sustainable because there is a financial and incentive for to be sustainable. We know our view of the market is such that we are at a nice point in the industry's history where demand is still growing but it is growing at a rate that we can supply just by investing in technology. And so we got a very healthy margin structure. We think the demand profile in DRAM is much less elastic, so there is not an incentive to get aggressive on building incremental capacity because we think at the end of the day that's just going to really hurt our returns for our existing business. To do anything that's significant anyway, that's our view of it. And again it is a situation that aligns pretty well where demand we think is going to grow in this sort of high 20s percent range for the foreseeable future and that's about we can do in terms of technology transition providing that on a supply growth. There is going to be a lot of iterations on the mix of what we are producing, whether it is PC, mobile, server and we can still move those things around and that's a key variable. But we think the existing capacity base in terms of the net wafers produced is sufficient for the really the foreseeable future going out for several years. I think guys want to take steps to minimize a lot of vast capacity as we go to advanced process technology, we will see some wafer reductions. And I think everyone will take some steps to minimize that a little bit to try to keep you away for -- your net wafer production relatively steady. But we don't think -- we don't think that there is incentive for us to build any significant DRAM capacity because there is just not financial return to do it.

Unidentified Participant

[Question inaudible]

Ivan Donaldson

Yes, so the question on 3D NAND timing and our thoughts on that. We feel like we are pretty well positioned timing wise and strategy wise. Our strategy in 3D NAND is, we want to have a solution that obviously is high performance and that's what 3D is going to be I think across the board. It is going to address some high performance market initially. But the other variable is still cost and our strategy is to ramp 3D at a cost effective point. And that's going to start really next year. We're going to -- we'll have sample late this year and early production late this year. But the real commercial volume is going to be second half of 2015. And that's again what our timing is based on is when it is cost benefit over 60 nanometer plain or can address some of the high growth opportunities we've talked about on the SSD side. So we think we can do both. But there is no question if 3D is going to take a fairly long time to get fully penetrated in the market because it has to get adopted by customers; all the solutions around whether it is controller et cetera have to build. So it is going to be multiyear transition from plain NAND to 3D NAND, no question. Now the good thing about that it is if you look out in the 20 let say 16 timeframe when 3D is a bigger piece in the market, we actually think it might slowdown the rate of supply growth in the industry because as you see some of the large early conversions to 3D, you are going to be losing output in your fab as I think a lot of people have talked about, you are going to get lot more bits per wafer, but you are going to loose output in your fabs in terms of the wafer out basis so right now what we know --given what we know, we think supply growth comes down from let say the 40% range this year and next year to may be more than mid 30s in 2016, realize it is ways out variables can change but that's our initial take on it.

Harlan Sur

On that note, on the 3D NAND technology I think late last year I think the team's view for 3D NAND sampling early 2014 with volume production, in 2015 I know the production milestone hasn't changed. But during the last conference call it is kind of interesting because now that team has been talking about sort of rolling this out to early customers more sort of late 2014 versus early 2014 so what's kind of the rationale behind that? I mean because I do think that it does take some time as it relates to yield improvement, it does take some time for customer qualification but give us the rationale for that?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes, I think it is just a comparison of production versus sampling. Our production date has been pretty steady. The sampling decision -- we did make a little bit of change. We got right to that point of being ready to put some stuff in the market and I feel like our leadership made a decision that we just saw very limited value in doing that. And the reason why is historically in the memory business you could say DRAM or NAND but let's NAND specifically, the first place you sample product and the first place you ship a product is usually in take the kind of basic let say Flash card market, right. Pretty simple, usually the designs are pretty easy so it is an easy place to put your initial capacity. That's based on also the fact that historically your early technology was usually lower performance than your legacy technology, right. Well, 3D NAND is quite different and that you know the early products are going to be higher performance, they will take a little bit of time to be cost effective as well. So the first place is we are going to put 3D NAND is really more in SSD. So we feel like there is limited utility to putting out 3D components to forward around in a channel and for the card guys to look at because we're really not going to shipping them anyway initially. And in the meantime you just give our competitors six months to look at our products. So that was our decision and the key of course is when we actually get real volume in the market. And we still feel like we are wind to that target next year.

Harlan Sur

Got it. Let's talk about DRAM scaling. The team has said that there is definitely scalability below 20 nanometers, I believe you said recently that conventional DRAM scaling may be can extend out for the next kind of five to six years and I think may be the one thing may be the market doesn't understand DRAM is already sort of like 3D based architecture already right. So I guess the question is what are the alternatives to conventional DRAM technology? Let say five years conventional runs out of steam, what are the alternatives and what are some of the things that Micron team is looking at right now?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes. Well, and that highlights a good point as to why I expect upwards of 25% of CapEx is going to be going to things other than just DRAM or NAND process technology. So that includes emerging memory and advanced packaging and some controller things as well but that's certainly highlights that we are making those investments today to address the long term. To your question, there are some pure technology alternatives to DRAM that--we will take a long time to really get into traditional DRAM socket but we will sort of augment DRAM for a period of time, there is a lot of options there. STTRAM is one of them; I think it is pretty high on the priority list that we are developing. But there are other as well that we have in house that we can consider. And then beyond that too within with sticking in the DRAM side of things, I think you are going to see advanced packaging become very key, as we get below 20 nanometer we can add density and performance doing something on the packaging side that are pretty innovative including through-silicon via technology which of course you are able to put a DRAM stock in this case right next to -- right on top of each other and connect them straight on to the silicon which you know you can smaller packet size, faster internet connect and that's what our customers are of course asking us for so there will be some different ways to innovate beside just shrinking the transistor if you will.

Harlan Sur

Okay and then on the DRAM technology roadmap front, how is the 20 nanometer ramp shaping up and remind us, obviously this is the first point where I think the team has said that you are going to use a sort of converged Elpida Micron best of both kind of 20 nanometer technology or are you still going to be running 20 nanometer let say Micron versus may be a 20 nanometer converged process and if you are just running one technology, what segments of that process flow that you find synergies with the Elpida team?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes, well, we are feeling very good about the 20 nanometer node, we think that -- of course we are in the interim doing a 25 nanometer shrink which is really an Elpida process and so that's getting rolled out in the former Elpida fab in Taiwan and Japan. But at 20 nanometer correct it is a converged node so the best of both worlds if you will. And we think that's going to be --really that's a 2015 story for us. And that's an opportunity to frankly close the gap a little a bit we think competitively and improve our cost position relative to some of our peers. And we feel like it is a very cost effective node for us. It is going to be tough node, and I think it is going to be difficult technology for everyone and you are seeing that now. So it will take some time but we feel very good about the design and look forward to bring it really into volume next year.

Harlan Sur

When do you initially start to ramp 20 nanometer?

Ivan Donaldson

We will have some samples in the next quarter or two but looking at fiscal 2015 is been the year to really get the volume out.

Harlan Sur

Make sense and then so given your typical technology ramps when should we expect sort of big crossover with 25 nanometer?

Ivan Donaldson

25 nanometer, I caveat this a little bit Inotera that piece of our capacity of course isn't doing 25. So they will basically wait and do 20 nanometers next year. Now remember for us, it is a little bit different model and from a cost basis we are not incentivize to have Inotera go to 20 per se. We will get more bit scores and we can do some different things with the product but the key for us is 25 nanometer on the wholly owned capacity in Hiroshima and in Taiwan with a former Rexship this fab now called Micron Memory Taiwan and that will cross over 25 nanometers in the next couple of quarters.

Harlan Sur

Okay and my last question on the CapEx front, fiscal year 2014, $3 billion, is that kind of the CapEx run rate we should expect for fiscal year 2015 which is not that far away or how should we think about CapEx may be as a percent of revenues on a go forward basis?

Ivan Donaldson

Yes, well, we have not given guidance for next year so I don't want to tip our hand there unnecessarily and what we plan to do. But I think the key is strategically very similar things, all right. Strategically focused on process technology advancement in both DRAM and NAND which includes 20 nanometer DRAM and some 3D NAND next year. And continuing to scale some of the investments in other technology including packaging alternative memory as I talked about couple of times. So the strategy stays very similar. We don't plan to spend capital on expanding capacity at any point in the future that we can see as of now. So the spending will be more really cost and margin driven.

Harlan Sur

Great, well, we are out of time. Ivan, thank you very much for joining us.

Ivan Donaldson

Thanks, Harlan.

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