Around 72% of Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) stock value can be attributed to its Search Advertising business where the company competes with search players like Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), AOL (NYSE:AOL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $683 for Google’s stock, about 51% above the current market price of $451. Google’s stock is very sensitive to the Global Internet Users, which has seen a steady increase over the years. Below we highlight how higher growth in the number of Internet users could create an upside to Google’s stock.
Global Internet Users
The number of Internet users globally has consistently risen from around 660 million in 2003 to 1,670 million in 2009 as result of rising PC penetration amongst consumers and the growing prevalence of internet access. Broadband internet access is becoming widely available as well and greater price competition by broadband providers will help spur even further internet adoption globally.
In addition, alternate media platforms to PC such as mobile phones, smartphones and e-readers like iPad will also boost Internet user count.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Global Internet Users indicate an increase from around 1,787 million in 2010 to 2,146 million by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 1,747 million in 2010 to 2,007 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate for Google’s stock.
Tell us how you think global internet usage will trend. You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Google’s stock to Global Internet Users.
Disclosure: No positions