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The number of new job postings on Monster (NYSE:MWW) sites in North America has fallen steeply over the past few years owing to the hiring slump and the challenging recruiting marketplace in the US. We expect the declining trend to continue as a result of the growing reach of social media networks like Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn. However, if the number of new job postings were to pick up rapidly, contrary to our expectations, there could be a significant upside to Monster’s stock.

An expected increase in new job postings on Monster’s international sites could boost Monster’s stock further. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $12 for Monster’s stock, about 10% above the current market price of $11. We estimate that Career Services International and Career Services North America constitute around 41% and 34% of Monster’s stock price, respectively.

Below we highlight the historical and future trends for new job postings on Monster sites globally .

Number of New Job Postings on Monster’s North American Sites

The number of new job postings on Monster’s North American sites has decreased from 1.9 million in 2006 to 1.1 million in 2009. On an average, Trefis members forecast that Number of New Job Postings on Monster’s North American Sites will be a flat 1.4 million over the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 1.1 million in 2010 to 0.9 million by 2016. The member estimates imply an upside of 13% to the Trefis price estimate for Monster’s stock.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Monster’s stock to Number of New Job Postings on Monster’s North American Sites.

Number of New Job Postings on Monster’s International Sites

In the past, the Number of New Job Postings on Monster’s International Sites has increased from 0.6 million in 2006 to 0.8 million in 2009. The average of Trefis member forecasts for Number of New Job Postings on Monster’s International Sites indicate an increase from 0.9 million in 2010 to 1.7 million by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 0.8 million in 2010 to 1.6 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Monster’s stock.

You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Monster’s stock to Number of New Job Postings on Monster’s International Sites.

Our complete analysis for Monster’s stock is here.

Disclosure: No positions

Source: Potential 14% Upside to Monster From Job Postings Growth