Oil to Fall Even More? ETFs to Avoid and Embrace

by: Benzinga

By Jason Raznick

August was the worst month for oil futures since May and if that dour anecdote wasn't bad enough, Barclays is out with a technical analysis note that says if oil futures can't break their pivot high at $76.47 per barrel, a decline to $63 could be in the offing.

That's not an unreasonable target on the downside when considering the weak economy equities and futures have been forced to endure on a regular basis.

Fortunately, the options for profiting from tumbling oil prices are plentiful, easy to find and most are fairly liquid.

One ETF that jumps out as one to immediately avoid or short if oil continues its drop is the OIL Services HOLDRs (NYSEARCA:OIH).

Oil services stocks are intimately tied to the price of crude, so let's have a look at some ETFs that have high correlations to OIH.

There are nine long ETFs that have correlations of over 90% to OIH. These would be fine candidates to short or avoid on the back of future oil declines.

Tops on the list is the iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equipment Index Fund (NYSEARCA:IEZ), OIH's nearest rival. IEZ has a correlation of 97% to OIH.

Another one to avoid is the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (NYSEARCA:XES), which has a correlation of more than 96% to OIH.

You'll probably want to avoid the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLE) with its 92% correlation to OIH.

The ETFs to embrace? Just two move opposite of OIH more than 90% of the time. They are the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (NYSEARCA:DUG) and the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:ERX).

Disclosure: No positions