There is Nothing Global Warming Cannot Do - S&P Becomes 'Climate Change' Expert
When it comes to 'global warming', sorry, 'climate change', you can always rely on the nonsense and boundless exaggerations coming hard and fast. A recent example was the hysterical reporting on the non-threat of glaciers in Antarctica doing what glaciers are wont to do. We will all drown!
Now it has turned out that global warming is going to impact sovereign credit ratings as well. Although the credit rating agencies were not even able to see the mortgage credit crisis coming, they have apparently joined the ranks of climate forecasters now.
"Global warming will pressure sovereign credit ratings throughout this century with poorer, lower-rated countries hardest hit, Standard & Poor's (S&P) Ratings Services said in a report.
S&P said climate change will be the 21st Century's second global "mega-trend", after aging populations, to put downward pressure on sovereign ratings, which could harm economic growth and government coffers.
The report said extreme weather events such as typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 5,000 people in the Philippines late last year, seem to have been on the rise since the early 1980s but none have so far caused S&P to revise its rating of any country. "We have taken a view that the size of devastation, while large in absolute terms, has not been sufficient to impact a rating overall," S&P said in a statement to the report published Thursday. "However, assuming that extreme weather events are on the rise in terms of frequency and destruction, how this trend could feed through to our ratings on sovereign states bears consideration," S&P said. S&P ranked the 116 countries it rates for climate vulnerability, with all of the 20 most vulnerable in emerging markets. Cambodia, Vietnam and Bangladesh occupied the bottom three spots. "Their vulnerability is in part due to their reliance on agricultural production and employment, which can be vulnerable to shifting climate patterns and extreme weather events, but also due to their weaker capacity to absorb the financial cost," it said. The 20 least-vulnerable nations were all advanced economies, led by Luxembourg, Switzerland and Austria. Nearly 200 governments agree that deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed by mid-century to ensure global temperature rises are kept below the 2-degree Celsius level. U.N.-backed scientists say that is needed to prevent a huge increase in droughts, flooding and rising sea levels."
Of course it is nonsense that 'extreme weather events' are increasing. They are in fact decreasing as recent studies (and the pesky data…) suggest. In the 1970s, the preferred theory was that 'global cooling' was responsible for an increase in 'extreme weather'. We kid you not, here it is, black on white.
Besides, whenever it suits them, the warmist alarmists never tire to remind us that 'weather is not climate' (this is always heard when it gets unseasonably cold). Whenever some tornado or typhoon does a great deal of damage, 'extreme weather' is suddenly 'clearly caused' by 'climate change'. They quite obviously take us all for complete idiots.
Let us see what the global warming 'mega trend' looks like lately:
Warming since mid 1996: zero, chart by Wattsupwiththat
And "200 governments agree" that "deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed by mid-century"? By mid century? What happened to "we have only hours/days left to save the world"?
Predictions of Imminent Climate Doom
Below is a by no means exhaustive list of climate doom predictions uttered since 1982 (h/t Jimbo, a poster at Wattsupwiththat):
"Moscow-Pullman Daily News - 5 July 1989
"governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control."
[Noel Brown - New York office of the United Nations Environment Program]
The Vancouver Sun - May 11, 1982
Lack of such action would bring "by the turn of the century, an environmental catastrophe which will witness devast-tation as complete, as irreversible as any nuclear holocaust."
[Mostafa Tolba - Executive director of the United Nations Environment Program]
New York Times - November 18, 2007
…..The IPCC chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, an engineer and economist from India, acknowledged the new trajectory. "If there's no action before 2012, that's too late," Pachauri said. "What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment."…..
Guardian - 1 August 2008
Andrew Simms The final countdown
We have only 100 months to avoid disaster. Andrew Simms explains why we must act now - and where to begin
…Because in just 100 months' time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change….
Independent - 20 October 2009
Gordon Brown: We have fewer than fifty days to save our planet from catastrophe
……..Copenhagen must be such a time.
There are now fewer than 50 days to set the course of the next 50 years and more. So, as we convene here, we carry great responsibilities, and the world is watching. If we do not reach a deal at this time, let us be in no doubt: once the damage from unchecked emissions growth is done, no retrospective global agreement, in some future period, can undo that choice. By then it will be irretrievably too late….
Guardian - 12 March 2009
……The current financial slump would be "nothing" compared to the "full effects which global warming will have on the world economy," he said.
"We have less than 100 months to alter our behaviour before we risk catastrophic climate change," Prince Charles added…..
National Post - 2009?
… In the summer, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon insisted "we have four months to save the planet."…
Guardian - 3 November 2009
We only have months, not years, to save civilization from climate change
…….Lester R Brown is president of Earth Policy Institute and author of Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization.
Guardian - 8 July 2008
100 months to save the Earth
There isn't much time to turn things around. And today's G8 announcements on climate change set the bar too low
……The world's climate experts say that that the world's CO2 output must peak within the next decade and then drop, very fast, if we are to reach this sort of long term reduction. In short, we have about 100 months to turn the global energy system around. The action taken must be immediate and far reaching……
[John Sauven - Greenpeace]
WWF - 7 December 2009
12 days to save the planet!
…"The world has given a green light for a climate deal. But the commitments made so far won't keep the world under 2° of warming, This has to change over the next 12 days. …
[WWF-UK's head of climate change, Keith Allott]
Guardian - 18 January 2009
'We have only four years left to act on climate change - America has to lead'
Jim Hansen is the 'grandfather of climate change' and one of the world's leading climatologists…..
"We cannot now afford to put off change any longer. We have to get on a new path within this new administration. We have only four years left for Obama to set an example to the rest of the world. America must take the lead."
The Star - Mar 24 2009
'We have hours' to prevent climate disaster
…Recently, Prince Charles has said we have only an estimated 100 months. Unless the world comes together and negotiates a meaningful agreement to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions nine months from now - at the Copenhagen meeting of the United Nations climate conference in December - another 90 months won't help. We have hours to act to avert a slow-motion tsunami that could destroy civilization as we know it.
Earth has a long time. Humanity does not. We need to act urgently. We no longer have decades; we have hours. We mark that in Earth Hour on Saturday….
[Elizabeth May of Canadian Green Party]
Address at New York University Law School - September 18, 2006
Many scientists are now warning that we are moving closer to several "tipping points" that could - within as little as 10 years - make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage to the planet's habitability for human civilization."
Scientific American - Mar 18, 2014
By Michael E. Mann
Why Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036
If the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, global warming will rise 2 degrees Celsius by 2036, crossing a threshold that many scientists think will hurt all aspects of human civilization: food, water, health, energy, economy and national security. …
Irish Times - 14 April 2014
Former president Mary Robinson said this morning global leaders have "at most two decades to save the world".
Independent - 28 June 2010
Scientists 'expect climate tipping point' by 2200
…"We are certainly capable of committing ourselves to an emissions trajectory that make 1,000 ppm in 2200 almost inevitable if we make the wrong decisions over the next 20 years," Dr Allen said….
And so on, and so forth. Isn't it great that we can fact-check all this stuff via the internet nowadays? Reading this we must assume it is 'already too late', right?
In fact, we were variously just 'hours away' from 'irreversible catastrophe', or nearly 200 years away, depending on the doom prophet and his personal time preference w.r.t. obtaining grant money or the green light for imposing further encroachments on economic and individual liberty. Note that we did not include the 1975 'scientific consensus' that humanity would shortly be wiped out in a global famine due to global cooling, unless we "did something immediately" ('doing something' in this context always means hike taxes, increase regulations and create entire new bureaucracies that parasitically consume the wealth produced by a dwindling number of wealth producers. The louder a climate doom prophet's clamor, the larger his or her 'carbon footprint' tends to be, of that one can rest absolutely assured).
Should any countries really worry about their credit ratings on account of global warming? Nope, not at all. It is more likely that not a single of today's credit rating agencies still exists by the time the incessant natural climate change cycle impacts any regional economy to a degree that would warrant altering its credit rating. In fact, it is more likely that the current monetary system and the entire construct of debts and claims on which it rests will have imploded before anyone on this planet is actually affected by 'climate change'.
Lastly, if there is any further warming - which seems a dubious proposition at this stage, but cannot be ruled out completely - it will have a positive impact on human civilization, just as has always happened historically. The only thing that needs to be feared is indeed a cooling climate, so one must actually hope that the ominous cessation of global warming since 1996 does not herald a change in trend.
Addendum: Time Magazine
Time covers from the 1970s.
Time Magazine is well known for propagating various elite-favored memes, so we decided to have a look at the evolution of its climate alarmism:
However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing."
"When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data for the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of the ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round.
Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds -the so-called circumpolar vortex-that sweep from west to east around the top and bottom of the world.
Man, too, may be somewhat responsible for the cooling trend. The University of Wisconsin's Reid A. Bryson and other climatologists suggest that dust and other particles released into the atmosphere as a result of farming and fuel burning may be blocking more and more sunlight from reaching and heating the surface of the earth.
Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic.
University of Toronto Climatologist Kenneth Hare, a former president of the Royal Meteorological Society, believes that the continuing drought and the recent failure of the Russian harvest gave the world a grim premonition of what might happen. Warns Hare: "I don't believe that the world's present population is sustainable if there are more than three years like 1972 in a row."
"But not only does the cold spell not disprove climate change, it may well be that global warming could be making the occasional bout of extreme cold weather in the U.S. even more likely. Right now much of the U.S. is in the grip of a polar vortex,…
So just you were not clear on these points:
Whenever there is a discernible temperature trend (which is almost always the case…), it is definitely 'catastrophic' and 'shows no signs of reversing' shortly before it does indeed reverse; humans are always responsible, no matter whether the climate is cooling or warming; a growing ice sheet is definitely a sign that it is time to panic, as is of course a receding ice sheet; and a 'polar vortex' is both proof of a coming ice age and of imminent catastrophic global warming.
In short, it is your duty to always live in fear and hand over your wealth and liberty to your governmental saviors posthaste and without demur.