Consensus is Most Commodities Will Fall in Price in 2007

The table below highlights the consensus opinion on where commodities prices will go in 2007. The estimates are from numerous analysts polled by Bloomberg. The expected percent change for each commodity is calculated by the difference in the year-end 2007 consensus and the current price.

Interestingly, the only three commodities that are expected to rise in 2007 are the three tracked mostly by the mainstream media -- oil, natural gas, and gold. All other commodities are expected to decline, with lead expected to fall the most.

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Comments

[Iscaethebear]

Birinyi's esimate on uranium is wrong! Currently world uranium consumption outpaces production by 80 million pounds. The largest miner, Cameco's (CCJ) Cigar mine (richest in the world) is flooded and will not be on line for at least a year. Uranium has gone from $7 a pound to over $60 without a single pullback. In addition, nuclear power plants are being planed all over the world, Russia, China India and more. Nuclear power plant manufactures are postioning themselves. GE Sees the writting on the wall and has form an alliance with Hitachi to build future pants and Toshiba just paid $4.2 billion for nuclear reactor maker Westinghouse.

It takes ten years to bring a uranium mine on line. So many new miners have yet produce any uramium. We are in a 5-10 year bull market.

Bruce Brocker

2006 Dec 13 12:45 PM

[CrossProfit_]

Side note to Bruce – the above is not a Birinyi brothers estimate. The article quotes a Bloomberg survey, enabling further research for those interested.

Analysts are aware of the expansion plans of Russia, China etc. They are also aware that in 2007 no new facility is scheduled to come on line (one postponement to 2008?).

2006 Dec 13 04:21 PM