Cramer's Mad Money - Where Is Oil Going? (5/28/14)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday May 28.

Where Is Oil Going? Stocks mentioned: Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL)

The oils have been "on fire" lately, because West Texas Intermediate has been hanging in there around $103. However, if oil prices were to drop, this may be bad news for miners and explorers. Carly Garner, a technical analysis at, has made accurate calls on oil before, and she doesn't think this will be a "summer of love" for oil.

She thinks oil has been artificially propped up over global events. According to The Commodity Futures Trading Exchange's Weekly Commitment of Traders, there is record net-long position in oil futures, and this is usually a sign of an upcoming drop in price, which could be as much as $20 or $25 per barrel once these bulls get spooked. Garner thinks money managers tend to be "bandwagon" traders and are likely to exit as quickly as they piled in. Garner sees a ceiling of resistance at $108, and once it rises to that level, she would bet against it. According to the RSI Indicator, oil isn't yet overbought, but it is approaching the territory. Garner sees oil dropping to the mid-90s or even lower. Cramer sees a strong underlying demand for oil, but he acknowledges the charts might be right and the oil trade might be long in the tooth.

Cramer took some calls:

Halliburton (HAL) is a cheap stock, and Cramer likes it.

Petrobras (PBR) is trying to make a stand. Cramer is not so bullish, because he doesn't trust the Brazilian government, but the company itself is good, and Cramer says he understands the bulls.

The Market's Negative Bias: Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), (NASDAQ:JD). Other stock mentioned: Ford (NYSE:F)

"When in doubt, it's bad," seems to be the undertone of the market. The negative bias has been at the root of what has been going right, as low expectations has led to rallies. Interest rates fell, but economic numbers are strong. The transports are rallying, yet sellers prepared for the worst by selling without hoping for the best. Toll Brothers (TOL) reported a strong quarter, and TOL rose, but is still down 2% for the year.

Many are afraid that when the bond buying by the Fed stops, stocks will be crushed, but Cramer doesn't think the cessation in bond buying will be so terrible for the market. Cramer thinks there could be a short-covering for heavily-shorted momentum stocks. A flood of IPOs were overwhelming the market, but after a breather in IPOs and the success of's (JD) IPO, that bearishness in hot tech IPOs might be ending.

While it is prudent to prepare for a correction, investors should also have a strategy to take advantage of good times, too.

Cramer took a call:

Ford (F) is in a terrific position for the second half of 2014. Management is saying good things about Europe.

CEO Interview: Jack Koraleski, Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP)

One way to take the pulse of the economy is to look at the transports. The rails are the "arteries and veins of capitalism." In the U.S., there are only 4 major railroads, so competition is limited. Union Pacific (UNP) is up 14% year to date. All the rails are good, but UNP is the top player, and its volumes are up 5%. Cramer spoke to CEO Jack Koraleski, who was on location uncovering UNP's Santa Teresa complex in New Mexico.

Santa Teresa transports goods brought to the U.S. through the coast, and it also moves products across the border with Mexico. Koraleski pointed out that trains are more fuel efficient than trucks, and he expects more companies to choose to have their goods transported by rail than on the highway. UNP is seeing double digit growth in agriculture, because there was a strong crop prior to the drought. UNP expects that segment to be strong at least until the end of the summer. The coal business is robust, and Koraleski expects it to be strong until the end of the year. UNP also sees strong demand for fracking sand. Koraleski discussed strength in housing and steel, and emphasized the "slow steady growth" in the economy, which is good for UNP.

CEO Interview: Nick Akins, American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP)

With the yields of treasurys falling again, it is time to look at high-dividend stocks. Utilities, such as American Electric Power (AEP), tend to give consistent yields. AEP has a huge power generation portfolio, yields 3.8% and has outperformed the utility index. The company beat earnings by 22 cents and has risen 10% since Cramer recommended it in January.

New EPA regulations could be an obstacle for AEP, which has complied with requirements to reduce exposure to coal. AEP has put scrubbers in place to make its coal cleaner and has some exposure to natural gas.

Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS), Workday (NYSE:WDAY)

Michael Kors (KORS) flew higher after its report, but because it has a very high multiple, the stock was placed under extra scrutiny by analysts. KORS had slightly higher inventories, and was sold off before rebounding at the end of Wednesday. Workday reported 74% growth, but its operating cash flow was breakeven, and the stock fell, but rebounded before the end of the day. Cramer thinks these are battleground stocks, and there are many pros and cons surrounding both of them. Workday is vulnerable to competition from larger, well-established companies as well as new IPOs. KORS has trounced high-end competition, but retail is a very volatile area. Cramer thinks it is better to be safe and take profits than buy either stock and be sorry.


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