Today more than ever the stock market seems to be in a stalemate. Today we heard chatter of "another bear market rally," which to us is too qualified a remark to be of any use, but it illustrates our point that the consensus view of the market's direction is undecided. The bears continue to point towards a double dip, while the bulls cite earnings and slower growth; both camps appear equally convinced and vocal.
Below we examine the performance of seven investments since the beginning of their respective cycles and how the recent runs compare to a historical average. We typically analyze cycles as defined by a 20% move. When the S&P 500 gains 20% from a trough it is constituted as a rally, likewise when it loses 20% that constitutes a decline. Rallies and declines continue until there is a 20% from from the most recent peak or trough. (Every asset except oil is currently rallying.)
In the chart below, the highlighted data point indicates the current move (both in time and change) and the end of the line indicates the average. The S&P 500 for example gained 79.93% from it's low over 410 days; the average gain is 135% over 1,412 days. The 10y Treasury is the only featured asset that has gained more than average, and Gold is the only asset where the rally has lasted longer than the average.
click to enlarge
Disclosure: Long SPY