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Summary

  • Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lilly are a good case study of dividend yield vs. dividend growth.
  • Johnson & Johnson has been a steady dividend payer for over 40 years.
  • Eli Lilly has a higher dividend yield but the dividend growth is lacking.

When looking to build a long-term portfolio of stocks that pay high dividends, investors usually come up with a mix of stocks that either have high dividend yields or high dividend growth rates. It is difficult to find good companies that have both. This means that there is often a choice to be made. All else equal, should one invest in the company that has that enticing high dividend yield, but a low dividend growth rate, or does one exude patience and invest in the company with a relatively low yield, but a high dividend growth rate? To help answer this question I looked at two companies that offer these different alternatives: Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY).

JNJ:
Div. Yield1 Yr. Div.
Growth Rate
5 Yr. Div.
Growth Rate
Payout Ratio
2.80%6.00%7.60%50%
LLY:
Div. Yield1 Yr. Div.
Growth Rate
5 Yr. Div.
Growth Rate
Payout Ratio
3.30%0.00%0.60%55%

There are clear differences in the two companies' dividend yields as well as their growth rates. This presents a good case study in which company will give the investor a greater return due to dividends over time. More specifically, I want to measure the Yield on Cost (YOC) and how it changes over time as well as the compounded annual return due to dividends. The YOC simply measures the annual dividend divided by the original investment in the company's stock.

The five-year growth rate of dividends for Johnson & Johnson far exceeds that of Eli Lilly. However, I do not expect the growth rate to remain that high going forward, especially over a long time frame. I also don't expect Eli Lilly to keep their dividend growth rate at 0%. If they do then something is clearly very wrong at the company.

To be more realistic, I will assume that Johnson & Johnson's dividend grows at the one-year rate of 6%. I assumed Lilly's dividend growth rate moves back to a more respectable 3%. I ran the following results in our free calculator called Dividend Yield And Growth.

It takes only six years for the YOC for Johnson & Johnson to break even with the YOC for Eli Lilly. Of course, due to compounding we see the YOC for Johnson & Johnson explode upward eventually. But this assumes that the company can continue its relatively high rate of dividend growth going forward.

Although the yield on cost breaks even after four years, it takes a bit longer for the compounded total returns to break even. In fact, it takes 13 years for the returns to break even. It is also important to note that I do not consider any price appreciation in these calculations and compounded returns are due solely to dividends.

This is an interesting case study in dividend investing because we can see that by investing in Johnson & Johnson for its dividends, one would be betting on the company maintaining a relatively high level of dividend growth. If this doesn't happen, there might be better alternatives out there for dividend investors. However, it is important to point out that Johnson & Johnson has been paying dividends since 1970 and has never cut their dividend.

When constructing a dividend portfolio for the long run, it is important to keep in mind just how long it might take for a lower dividend yield to catch up with a stock that pays a higher yield. That low yield stock that you think will have stellar dividend growth rates might still not be worth putting in your portfolio until the dividend yield has risen enough to make it worthwhile.

Source: Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth: Johnson & Johnson Vs. Eli Lilly